Donald Trump's Iran war is fracturing his inner circle, with fierce internal battles over whether to escalate military operations or declare victory and exit—a conflict that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt attempted to suppress as being "based on gossip and speculation."
According to a Reuters exclusive by journalists Nandita Bose, Matt Spetalnick, and Humeyra Pamuk, Trump administration officials are locked in a "complex tug-of-war" driving the president's shifting public statements on the conflict. Three weeks into the war, aides are still debating when and how to declare victory even as the conflict spreads across the Middle East.
The irony is stark: Trump returned to office promising to avoid "stupid" military interventions. Instead, he plunged the nation into a war that has rattled global financial markets, disrupted international oil trade and angered his MAGA base.
Economic advisers from the Treasury Department and National Economic Council have warned Trump that oil shocks and rising gasoline prices could rapidly erode public support for the war. Political advisers—including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Deputy Chief James Blair—are reinforcing this message, urging Trump to define victory narrowly and signal the operation is limited and nearly finished.
But hawks are pushing the opposite direction. Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, along with media commentator Mark Levin, are urging Trump to sustain military pressure on Iran.
A third force complicates matters further: Trump's populist base. Strategist Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson are pressing Trump and his aides to avoid another prolonged Middle East conflict.
The result is strategic incoherence. "He is allowing the hawks to believe the campaign continues, wants markets to believe the war might end soon and his base to believe escalation will be limited," one Trump adviser admitted. In other words, Trump is telling everyone what they want to hear while committing to nothing—a dangerous posture in one of the world's most volatile and economically critical regions.
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