Trump’s Iran leverage crumbles as new ‘inflationary shock’ threat materializes: experts

A startling development in the Middle East has both weakened President Donald Trump's negotiating position with Iran and threatened to trigger a new global “inflationary shock,” two experts told Al Jazeera this weekend.

On Friday, the Iran-backed Houthis — the Yemeni militant and governmental organization — captured Mayyun island, which divides the Bab al-Mandab Strait — a major global shipping chokepoint — into two distinct channels. This comes after the Houthis reportedly took control of the entirety of Yemen’s west coast, which sits along the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Back in July, the Houthis launched a blockade of all Saudi Arabian oil shipments passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which, with the group’s new dominance over the territory, now makes traversal through the waterway a “very risky endeavor if the Houthis don’t allow it,” warned Wolfgang Pusztai, a security and policy analyst.

Pusztai argued that Iran also benefits from the move, gaining fresh leverage over another global chokepoint and making its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “even more efficient.”

Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, concurred with Pusztai that the Houthis’ capture of Mayyun island strengthened Iran’s negotiating position with the United States. Economist Javed Hassan further warned that a global supply shock could soon emerge should the Houthis further disrupt trade through the strait.

“War-risk insurance and charter rates can rise before cargoes are formally interrupted, and the resulting pressure extends beyond oil into container shipping, dry bulk and the wider cost of traded goods,” Hassan told Al Jazeera. “The technical supply shock from Houthi attacks therefore becomes an inflationary shock through several commodities at once.”

The development comes as oil prices continue to climb, with diesel costs in the United States reaching levels so high that some gas stations have reportedly been unable to display the correct price.