Trump is in a 'historically bad' position with worse polls than any previous incumbent: analyst

Even though the 2020 election is more than a year away, polls are already showing President Donald Trump losing to prospective Democratic challengers by big margins.

While polls at this early stage of the race are not considered predictive, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten writes that Trump is nonetheless in a "historically bad" position to win reelection, as no other incumbent president at this point in their first term has ever polled so poorly against prospective opponents.

"I went all the way back to World War II era in the Roper Center archive to see how presidents were polling at this point against their eventual challengers," Enten writes in explaining his research methods. "What's clear is the vast majority of incumbents were ahead at this point in the campaign: nine of the 11 were ahead. And for the average incumbent, they led their eventual challenger by 12 points at this point."

At this point in their first terms, Enten writes, President Jimmy Carter was trailing in his worst poll by five points, while President Barack Obama was trailing in his worst poll by one point. Trump, in contrast, "trails Biden by 10 points in the average August poll" and "has not been ahead of Biden in a single national poll taken this entire cycle," Enten reveals.

"Put another way," Enten writes. "Trump's worst poll against any of the top five Democrats at this point is 5 points worse than the worst poll for any incumbent since World War II against his eventual challenger."

Read the whole analysis here.