President Donald Trump's political fortunes are eroding as the economic outlook crumbles, Nobel Prize-winning economist turned political commentator Paul Krugman wrote for his Substack on Monday — but that doesn't make him any less dangerous.
Rather, wrote Krugman, a frequent Trump critic, it means he will have to greatly accelerate his timeline for dismantling American democracy if he wants to avoid losing the power he's accumulating.
To understand Trump's overall plan, he argued, one should look at Hungary.
"Many observers, myself included, have looked at Hungary’s descent into soft authoritarianism as a model for what can happen here," wrote Krugman. "Since taking power in 2010 Viktor Orban and Fidesz, the ruling party, have systematically undermined democratic institutions, creating a de facto one-party state. But the process has been gradual and relatively nonviolent: Salami tactics that sliced off effective opposition a bit at a time rather than tanks in the streets and detention camps."
Orban had the benefit of time, because for most of the time he was reshaping the government in his image, the economy was fairly strong and people were too satisfied to really care much about the loss of their freedom, Krugman argued — but this no longer seems to be on the table for Trump, as his tariffs are backfiring and businesses are getting ready to hike prices precisely as the job market is weakening.
"If Trump and MAGA want to hold on to power, they’ll have to do so in the face of low public approval and poor economic performance. This, unfortunately, doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t demolish democracy. It does mean that they’ll have to do it quickly and blatantly," wrote Krugman. The plot to rig congressional districts in Texas is one part of that, he argued.
"The important point is that right now Trump has immense power, thanks in large part to the cowardice of many of the institutions that should be holding him in check. But he’s also rapidly bleeding support, in large part because he’s completely failing to deliver on his economic promises," Krugman concluded. "That combination makes this an extremely dangerous moment. And if authoritarianism does come to America, don’t count on it being soft."