Trump's second term could 'provide strategic windfalls' to Russia: expert

Former President Donald Trump has set off alarm bells among experts with his domestic second-term plans, which would undermine U.S. democracy by transforming the civil service into a system to reward loyalists and using the Justice Department to target political enemies. But a Trump presidency would also have substantial impacts for the world at large.

In an interview with columnist Thomas B. Edsall of The New York Times, Council on Foreign Relations senior vice president James Lindsay believes that a second Trump term would be a massive windfall for Russia's Vladimir Putin, currently mired in a disastrous invasion of Ukraine that has evolved into a costly stalemate.

"Trump could effectively gut NATO simply by saying he will not come to the aid of NATO allies in the event they are attacked," said Lindsay. "The power of Article V rests on the belief that alliance members, and specifically, the most powerful alliance member, will act when called upon. Destroy that belief and the organization withers. Walking away from Ukraine would damage the alliance as well even though Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Member countries would read it as a signal that Trump is abandoning Europe."

Even in his first term, Trump was often hostile toward the NATO alliance, complaining that other member states needed to pay more in military spending to secure American support, and he frequently praised Putin on the world stage — to this day saying he trusts the Russian autocrat more than the U.S. intelligence agencies, whom he believes were out to get him.

"Trump’s hostility toward alliances, skepticism about the benefits of cooperation writ large, and his belief in the power of unilateral action will lead him to make foreign policy moves that will unintentionally provide strategic windfalls to China, Russia, Iran or North Korea," Lindsay continued. "The scenario in which he withdraws the United States from NATO or says he will not abide by Article V is the most obvious example."

The actual motivation of Trump in doing this, "will be to save money and/or free the United States from foreign entanglements," Lindsay added. "But Vladimir Putin would love to see NATO on the ash heap of history."