Trump's snub of GOP senator could be 'the pivotal moment of the 2026 election': analysis

Donald Trump says he has “no regrets” about backing Ken Paxton in Texas. A new CNN analysis suggests his party may soon have plenty.

After the March primary, Trump was widely expected to endorse Sen. John Cornyn in his runoff against Paxton, the state’s scandal-plagued attorney general. CNN’s Aaron Blake writes that Cornyn simply had the better shot at holding the seat. Trump even said an endorsement was coming “soon.”

“But then Trump just … didn’t,” Blake wrote.

Instead, Trump got behind Paxton just as he was about to win the May runoff. Five months later, the Republican nominee is in trouble.

Paxton’s image is “double-digits underwater” in most polls, including by about 20 points in two recent surveys, according to the analysis. He has trailed Democrat James Talarico by as much as six points in three separate polls. A recent Fox News poll found Talarico winning 20 percent of likely voters who backed Cornyn in the primary.

“If Paxton loses and the Democrats have a bare majority, that non-endorsement of Cornyn might emerge as the pivotal moment of the 2026 election,” Blake wrote.

Paxton carries a long list of baggage, including an impeachment and criminal charges. Even Trump has mocked the way Paxton “looks, dresses, and speaks,” Blake noted.

Cornyn still hasn’t endorsed Paxton. Leaked audio reported by CNN on Friday captured Paxton privately claiming that Cornyn wants him to lose. That came days after Axios obtained separate audio of Paxton telling donors the Iran war and gas prices were dragging down his campaign.

The GOP is now pouring money into the race. The leading Senate Republican super PAC began spending another $30 million in Texas on Friday to save the seat, the New York Times reported.