New poll suggests Trump's plan to defuse bitter GOP primary battle will fail

With the Texas Republican Senate primary advancing to a runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, President Donald Trump — who has stayed out of the race for months — is being pushed by his advisers to make an endorsement.

But a new poll released on Thursday suggest if he does, it might matter less than he thinks.

The poll, issued by Blueprint, was flagged on X by former GOP strategist Tim Miller, and tested how the current state of the race would change if Trump endorsed either Cornyn, which appears to be what Senate Republicans want him to do, or Paxton. And what the poll found, Miller wrote, is that it "barely impacts the race" — no matter what happens, Paxton is leading.

The baseline result of the poll is that Paxton leads Cornyn 48-36 among current primary voters. The poll then tested what would happen if Trump endorsed Cornyn, in which case the race shifts to 44-37 Paxton — a shift in Cornyn's favor, but only a small one and not likely to decide the race.

The one case in which a Trump endorsement does appear to make a difference is if he instead endorses Paxton. In that polled scenario, the result is much more dramatic, with Paxton then leading 56-28 — but obviously, the winner of the election is unchanged.

Earlier this week, Trump suggested that if he endorses in the Texas Senate runoff, the candidate who doesn't get the endorsement should drop out of the race, which, if done early enough, would cancel the runoff and automatically hand the nomination to the remaining candidate under Texas state law.

However, Paxton made clear in an interview on Wednesday that if Trump endorses Cornyn, he's not leaving: "I’m staying in this race. I owe it to the people of Texas." He did, however, offer to drop his candidacy if Congress passes a stalled voter suppression bill Trump has been pushing aggressively.