Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and other Republican officials have expressed growing concern that Donald Trump's refusal to take sides in the Texas Republican primary could cost the party a crucial Senate seat in November.
The seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is considered vulnerable, particularly given the possibility of a contentious runoff against scandal-plagued Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Thune has privately urged Trump to endorse Cornyn, whom party insiders view as the stronger general election candidate, but Trump has remained noncommittal, stating only that he is "friendly with all of them."
Thune has acknowledged the political risk in stark terms. According to him, "Honestly, if you look at the polling in a general election setting, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the seat [flips], depending on who the Democrats nominate."
A potential Paxton-Cornyn runoff is expected to be expensive and nasty,' with broader implications for the Republican Party's Senate strategy, Politico is reporting. Should Cornyn lose the primary, Senate Republicans worry they could be forced to redirect hundreds of millions of dollars more toward defending Texas when that money could instead support competitive races in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Michigan—races critical to maintaining Senate control.
Thune emphasized the stakes: "We have to be prepared to spend there, and that's a very different scenario if Cornyn's the nominee. He is by far, I think, the best candidate on the ballot in a general election, not only for the Senate, but also for down-ballot races in the House that could be impacted by the Senate race too."
Republican donors have expressed frustration with Trump's inaction. One donor remarked, "Nobody truly knows what is going to happen based on the polling. There is a scenario [where] Cornyn doesn't make it into a runoff. But even if he does, a runoff with Paxton will be very tough because of [the] low number of voters who turn out — most of whom are very conservative and viewed as Paxton voters."
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