Trump’s spell is broken — no wonder he’s mad

Donald Trump won the first-in-the-nation presidential primary last night in New Hampshire, a little over a week after winning the Iowa caucuses. He has bested his nearest rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. The path to securing the Republican Party’s nomination for a third straight time is now standing clear before him. You’d think he would be happy. He’s not.

“Trump furious as he fails to knock out Haley before South Carolina.” That’s a Reuters headline this morning. “Trump, 77, was full of fury after Haley, 52, vowed in a Tuesday night speech to fight on, just two days after the other leading Republican contender, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, ended his campaign. ‘Who the hell was the imposter who went up on the stage before, and like, claimed a victory?’ Trump asked a crowd of supporters in New Hampshire, adding, ‘I don't get too angry. I get even.’”

Why so angry?

Trump may be winning, but he’s hardly dominating. He’s hardly invincible. His victory, in the end, is hardly inevitable. That’s how he sees himself. That’s how he wants others to see him. He’s a winner, because he can’t lose, and he can’t lose, because he’s a winner. Anything short of total dominance is a result of his enemies conspiring to take away something that’s rightfully his, which is total dominance of his enemies. That’s how it works in his head. But reality doesn’t always cooperate, and when it doesn’t always cooperate, it makes a criminal former president mad.

Iowa is white, rural and very conservative. It should have offered the most ideal conditions for demonstrating Trump’s invincibility. It didn’t. In 2020, when he was the incumbent, he won 97 percent of the vote. In 2024, when he only pretended to be an incumbent, he won about 51 percent. Nearly half of the most extreme Republicans in an extremely Trump-friendly state decided that they wanted someone else to carry the party’s mantle.

New Hampshire isn’t as conservative as Iowa, but it’s just as white and rural. Trump still acted like he was the incumbent. He still acted like he’d won the election already, and that voting for him was merely confirmation after the fact. The Granite State also demonstrated that he’s not invincible and that his victory, in the end, isn’t inevitable. Trump won more than 54 percent of last night’s vote. However, Nikki Haley won more than 43 percent. Trump promised to rout her by 30 points. Instead, he got 10.

A win is a win, you could say. But winning isn’t enough. Trump has to dominate. He has to seem invincible. He has to seem inevitable. This is more than a profound emotional need. It’s an election strategy that used to work! He said he was a winner. Republicans believed him. And he won.

But the con isn’t working like it used to! Something’s wrong! Indeed, according toPolitico, “there’s a whole swath of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November if he becomes the nominee” (my italics).

Before Iowa, a Times poll found that “Biden had slightly more support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (91 percent) than Trump did among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent).” After Iowa, an NBC News poll found that 43 percent of Haley supporters in that state said that “they would back President Joe Biden over Trump. And, according toPolitico, that’s “a dynamic that has been on vivid display as the campaign shifted this week to New Hampshire.”

Presidential elections are won or lost on the margins. Nominees must have the backing of their party, plus support from swing voters (indies and voters from the opposing side). Before Iowa and New Hampshire, we already knew that Trump was going to have trouble expanding the GOP base. He never reaches beyond it. He always doubles down on it. He alienates anyone who isn’t already stewing in paranoia and conspiracy. But afterward, there are signs that Trump’s base of power is shrinking.

“When I have people come up to me who voted for Reagan in '76 and have been conservative their whole life say that they don't want to vote for Trump again, that's a problem," Ron DeSantis said after dropping out. "So he's got to figure out a way to solve that. I think there's an enthusiasm problem overall, and then I also just think there are some voters that have checked out at this point that you got to find a way to get them back."

Why aren’t they showing up? It could be that these Republican voters don’t want the party’s standard-bearer to be a fraud, insurrectionist and proven rapist, who also is facing nearly 100 felonies, including some for treason. It could be that they just presumed that he’d win. (That’s DeSantis’ theory). But it could also be that they just don’t believe Trump anymore. They don’t think he’s invincible. They don’t think he’s inevitable. They’re looking around for someone else. They’re even open to Biden.

The spell is broken.

No wonder he’s mad.