Never Trump conservatives have been hoping — not expecting, but hoping — that frontrunner Donald Trump would be rejected in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. But Trump was the clear winner in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, January 15, picking up roughly 51 percent of the votes.
In Iowa, Trump received more votes than Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy combined. Ramaswamy has since dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. And former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also ended his presidential campaign after the Iowa Caucuses.
Veteran conservative columnist Mona Charen, a former Nancy Reagan speechwriter, is among the Never Trumpers who has been hoping that the GOP primary wouldn't be a coronation for Trump. In an article published by The Bulwark on January 17, Charen expresses disappointment over the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses but lays out some reasons why she is optimistic about the general election.
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"No question that a 30-point victory for Trump was not the ideal outcome of the Iowa Caucuses," Charen laments. "Voters have only two opportunities to prevent the return to power of a Putin-besotted, antisemite-praising, Constitution-terminating, multiple felony indictee —the primaries and the general. It would have been better if Trump had been rebuked early and hard by Republican voters, but that was not to be."
The Iowa Caucuses, Charen adds, demonstrated that "one cannot bank on most Republicans to save us from a second Trump term."
"While one can always hope for a miracle like Haley defeating Trump in New Hampshire, prompting South Carolina voters to rediscover their affection for their former governor, which would in turn upend the entire race — the chances of that are about as good as winning the lottery, which in South Carolina, are about 1 in 293 million," the Never Trump conservative warns.
Charen notes, however, that "at least 25 percent of Iowa Republican Caucus-goers say they will not vote for Trump in the general" — which, she stresses, is a positive sign.
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"Our elections are decided by a few thousand votes in five swing states," Charen explains. "Admittedly, Iowa is not one of those swing states, but if large numbers of Republicans in ruby-red Iowa are saying they will not vote for Trump in the general election, what does that suggest about Republicans in places like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia?.... The interest in third parties remains a serious challenge, but if we're indulging in hope, we can see the work ahead."
The former Reagan White House speechwriter continues, "Independents are even more determined to prevent Trump from gaining another term than the minority of Republicans who have drawn a line against him. Some, perhaps many, independents have not yet processed that we really will be facing another Trump/Biden choice in November. Once Trump is in front of their faces again, they will remember why he's unacceptable — just as the January 6 hearings in the summer of 2022 may have driven down Trump's approval."
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Mona Charen's full article for The Bulwark is available at this link.