House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is nearing his one-year anniversary of being elected to lead the House of Representatives. But even if the House stays in Republican hands this November, he'll likely be in for a bitter fight if he hopes to keep the speaker's gavel.
Politico identified five factions of the House Republican Conference that Johnson has to appease before the House convenes to elect its next speaker on January 3, 2025. Currently, the Republican majority is so slim that Johnson can only afford two defections from his conference before passing legislation. Even if the GOP keeps that narrow majority, the Louisiana Republican will have to do battle with the most ornery and cantankerous sects of his party to stay in his position.
One of those factions is the "Anti-Johnson 11," which is led by far-right firebrands like Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Paul Gosar (R-AZ) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA). Those three mounted a failed effort to remove Johnson via a motion to vacate, as Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) did with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in 2023.
Eight others also supported the motion, though Johnson kept the gavel after cutting a deal with House Democrats to support additional Ukraine funding if they agreed to back him over Greene.
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Johnson also has to worry about a group Politico called "disgruntled Republicans," which includes Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Ralph Norman (R-SC). These Republicans didn't vote for Greene's motion, though they have indicated a lack of warmth toward keeping Johnson as speaker if the GOP keeps the House after the November election.
"I can tell you this: I will never support Speaker Mike Johnson as speaker again. That’s for certain," Boebert said after Johnson appropriated more funding for Ukraine earlier this year.
The third group of Republicans Johnson has to contend with are what the publication referred to as "rivals' allies," who support other potential candidates for the speakership. One of those rivals is House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH), who unsuccessfully sought the speaker's gavel after McCarthy was ousted last fall. Jordan's supporters, like Reps. Andy Harris (R-MD) and Troy Nehls (R-TX), have said publicly they would prefer to see the Ohio lawmaker on the speaker's dais next January.
"I like Jim Jordan. I think he should have a shot at being speaker," Harris said in the spring. "I think he will have a shot at being speaker after the election."
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Johnson's continued speakership could also be determined by incoming House Republicans. Politico interviewed roughly two dozen potential new incoming members who won Republican primaries in safe red districts, and while some praised Johnson's leadership, others were more noncommittal. John McGuire, who narrowly defeated House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-VA) in a tight Republican primary, is in Johnson's corner, though presumed incoming Arizona freshman lawmaker Abe Hamadeh notably didn't say whether he would vote for Johnson assuming he'll be in Congress on January 3.
The fifth faction is made up of so-called "silent Republicans." These are members who haven't said one way or another if they would support Johnson's bid for another term as speaker. One unnamed GOP lawmaker told the outlet that they had lost faith in Johnson and would be supporting someone else for speaker if Republicans keep control of the chamber.
“I feel completely justified going back home and saying: ‘Why would I sign up for this again?’ No chance,” the Republican said.
Click here to read Politico's article in full.
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