'Yes on 4': Fierce battle in Florida over abortion ballot measure

Outside a concert hall in Orlando, reproductive rights activists weave through a lively crowd awaiting pop superstar Charli XCX.

As fans clad in sequins and neon-green outfits brave the rain, advocates urge young concertgoers to pledge "Yes" to a high-stakes ballot measure that aims to embed abortion rights into Florida's constitution.

Known as "Amendment 4," the question will appear on the same ballot as the US presidential vote, and seeks to restore the right to terminate pregnancies until the point of viability in the nation's third most populous state.

Since May, Florida has enforced a ban on abortions after six weeks -- before many women even know they are pregnant.

The initiative faces a steep challenge, requiring 60 percent approval to pass: the toughest threshold among ten states holding similar referendums on November 5.

"We're trying to just make sure that people that might not typically vote, which are younger people, know that they have a right to reproductive freedom," Matthew Grocholske, organizer of the "Yes on 4" campaign in Orange County, tells AFP.

The 20-year-old, currently taking a gap year to focus on activism, was handing out "Hot for 4" beaded bracelets and encouraging people to sign up for voting pledges.

"I've had abortions in the past, and it saved my life," shared 25-year-old preschool teacher Gigi Forbriger after signing a pledge to vote. "I was in an abusive relationship. If I'd had the baby, I'd be in a horrible place right now."

Forbriger, who was living in Florida at the time, recalled how crucial having a choice was. "It was definitely over six weeks," she tells AFP, and the current law "scares the hell out of me."

- Tight race -

The campaign gathered over a million signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Since its approval in April, more than 6,000 volunteers have been mobilized and $30 million has been raised for the cause, according to Nora Vinas, communications director for Floridians Protecting Freedom, the organization that started the campaign.

The funds have been used for posters, stickers, and TV spots.

"We have completed 1.4 million voter contact attempts, so that includes calling, texting, postcarding, knocking on doors -- and we're really proud of that," Vinas tells AFP.

Still, she predicts the race will be decided by paper-thin margins, with every vote crucial to reaching the 60 percent threshold.

On the other side, a counter-offensive is in full swing.

Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, the arch-conservative who signed the six week ban into law, is spearheading the charge.

Frank Pavone, director of Priests for Life, tells AFP that Florida has one of the most "vibrant" anti-abortion efforts among the states with upcoming votes.

The priest argues the language of the amendment is too vague.

Although the proposal says that "parental notification" will still be required before minors seek abortions, Pavone claims that isn't the same as parental consent.

He also expressed concern over a clause permitting abortions "when necessary to protect the patient's health, as determined by the patient's healthcare provider," warning it could open the door to late-term abortions.

"There would be people flocking to Florida to get abortions" from nearby states like Alabama and Georgia, Pavone predicted.

- Non-partisan? -

The idea of Florida becoming a refuge for women seeking abortions across the southeastern United States would however be welcomed by activists like Cheyenne Drews, 28.

Drews was leading a door-to-door campaign in an affluent Orlando neighborhood, where many residents have already received mail-in ballots.

"All eyes are on Florida," she told a dozen volunteers gathered despite a downpour. "Every day from now and then, is election day!"

The issue is at the heart of the race between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat campaigning to restore federal abortion rights.

The Republican candidate, who lives in Florida, has said he'll vote "no" on the amendment -- after having previously stated that a six-week limit might be too short.

Activists on the ground recognize that their campaign must transcend party lines.

"It is a non-partisan issue," stressed volunteer Sara Swisher between conversations with voters. "Not everybody is entrenched."

Swisher is confident that support can come from unexpected places.

"There's people that are going to vote for Trump, but they'll vote yes on four," says the 30-year-old.

If approved, the amendment would take force in January 2025.