You blew it in New Hampshire, Joe Biden. Pray it doesn’t hurt you — and then some.
December 16, 2023
CONCORD, N.H. — You blew it Joe.
The decision by you and "your advisers" to reward Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) by attempting to make South Carolina the first-in-the-nation Democratic primary in 2024 was one of the biggest political blunders in your decades-long time in public service.
You have said over and over that you might have skipped a 2024 re-election bid if it were not for Donald Trump, because you see Trump posing a unique threat to the United States and to democracy itself.
So while we know the 2024 general election may very well be a rematch of 2020, you are the incumbent this time and Trump is not. And despite his enormous lead in the Republican primary, coupled with the many pundits who are debating what color prison jumpsuit Trump will soon be wearing, all the GOP candidates running against him have been waging a war against you, not him.
By skipping January’s New Hampshire primary in protest of it leap-frogging your beloved South Carolina, you may have very well undercut your ability to fight the very anti-democratic force you say you’re in this race to slay.
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Let’s review: Because the GOP has kept the traditional, first-in-the-nation calendar for their New Hampshire presidential primary, all the Republican candidates — save for unabashed anti-Trumper Chris Christie — have made their time in Iowa and New Hampshire an opportunity to declare war on Biden and dance around Trump. And you, sir, are MIA. You are not on the primary ballot. You have not campaigned here in New Hampshire. You are entirely resting on the laurels of your 7-percentage-point victory over Trump in the 2020 general election — an advantage that’s hardly guaranteed in 2024 when every last electoral vote might count. (Thanks, but no thanks, South Carolina).
So, in January, New Hampshire will nevertheless conduct a presidential primary as is demanded by the statutes of my state. New Hampshire state law dictates that the presidential primary for both the Republican and Democratic parties must occur before any other in the nation — "7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election."
Given that the presidential primary is run by the state of New Hampshire, and not by the Republican or Democratic parties, a primary for both parties will be held. Republican voters and undeclared voters that have chosen a Republican ballot on Primary Day will have a reason to vote – and their vote will matter. Dems will also have a primary, but it is little more than a rogue primary … not recognized by the Democratic National Committee. In fact, when the state of New Hampshire holds the legally required primary, it could actually lead to the national party penalizing New Hampshire Democrats and the Democratic presidential candidates who campaign here.
Yippee!
So the date has been set, a primary will be held, millions of dollars will be spent on ads attacking you, and we have to ask, “What value will this rogue presidential primary hold for New Hampshire Democrats?”
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To vote or not to vote, that is the question now before New Hampshire voters. But vote for what? There are currently 21 folks appearing on the New Hampshire Democratic Primary ticket (heck, cough up $1,000 and you, too, can be a presidential candidate in New Hampshire.).
But no Joe.
So write Biden in? What does that get you? If not enough people write you in, will the media spin it as a poor showing? (Traditionally, write-in campaigns are successful when there is a passion, either around the candidate or the issue at stake. Passion for Joe, if there ever was any, has faded like so many of the policy hopes and dreams we held four years ago.)
Voters could also show up to vote and leave the ballot blank as an expression of disgust.
They could vote for spiritual self-help guru Marianne Williamson or little-known, increasingly hated Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) who could use his multi-million-dollar personal wealth in a vain attempt to package himself as a younger, more energetic Biden.
All the choices suck, and the only thing you, Mr. President, have created by this misstep is a vehicle for competing, self-defeating messages that will be interpreted in self-serving ways by the media, the Republican opposition and even members of your own party you so desperately need in November. This is more danger than help, and you and the DNC invited a problem your campaign did not need and now cannot manage.
You may have better things to do these days: Attempting to manage the complex and tragic war between Israel and Hamas, eroding support for the continuing war in Ukraine, discontent with the economy — have you looked at the cost of groceries recently? — and the real-life consequences of climate change.
But when you finally roll your campaign into South Carolina after months of giving your opponents free shots at you and perhaps even bruising faith within the Democratic Party, folks won't give a crap ... the damage will be done.
Your mistake made, please figure out — and fast — how to reverse your blunder and stanch your losses.
No pressure: Only the very fate of our democracy may depend on it.
Arnie Arnesen is the host of syndicated radio program "The Attitude with Arnie Arnesen." A former fellow at the Harvard Institute of Politics, Arnesen was the 1992 Democratic nominee for governor of New Hampshire and served as a member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives from 1984 to 1992.