JD Vance's support may have hurt MAGA icon's struggling election chances: expert

Far-right autocratic Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is on the brink of losing power after 16 years of consolidating control, CNN data forecaster Harry Enten argued — and if anything, Vice President JD Vance's trip to the country to rally with him didn't help.

In fact, it may have actually made Orban's prospects of keeping his job worse.

For insight, Enten turned to data from Kalshi, a gambling platform with whom CNN has a partnership deal to advertise during certain political analysis segments.

"What are the prediction markets showing?" Enten told anchor John Berman. "It to me looks like there's a real chance that Viktor Orban goes down to defeat. Just take a look here. This is Kalshi prediction market. Look, chance Orban is Hungary's prime minister after the 2026 election. You go back to the beginning of the year. It was basically an even split, 48 percent chance that, in fact, he would be the prime minister after the election."

Since then, he continued, "Down it goes, down it goes. We're looking now at just a 31 percent chance, about a 1 in 3 shot."

"And I was also looking at the numbers pre- and post J.D. Vance visit," Enten added. If anything, they might have gone down slightly. But there really has been no impact. JD Vance not helping out an ally of his abroad."

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