Data expert gives Disney startling lesson on the effect of bowing to Trump

A veteran data journalist is offering a lesson to those in positions of power about why they keep losing when they bow to President Donald Trump.

Writing on Monday, G. Elliott Morris explained on his "Strength in Numbers" Substack that powerful people mistakenly assume Trump holds more control over the country than he actually does. When Disney/ABC capitulated to Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr and conservative affiliate owners Sinclair and Nexstar, they effectively shot themselves in the foot, he said.

Even as of Monday, people were still searching for instructions on how to cancel their Disney+ accounts after the issue exploded on Sept. 18.

"This is not limited to internet posters and Google searchers; investors are worried too. Disney’s stock is down 2% over the last week, while the overall market is up nearly 1%," Morris wrote.

According to Morris, this fallout stems from people underestimating how unpopular Trump is, and how those who capitulate to him also become unpopular by association.

Morris examined Trump’s approval ratings in his first year, comparing them to those of previous presidents since George W. Bush. The only president ranking lower than Trump today is Trump in 2017.

Recent polls have shown Trump performing poorly on specific issues such as trade, the economy, inflation, and immigration.

"But the problem for Trump (and those who ignore the data) runs deeper than the topline indicates," Morris wrote. "It’s not just that more people disapprove than approve of Trump, but that the disapprovers feel their emotions much, much more intensely. Depending on the polls you pick for your average, between 46 and 50 percent of U.S. adults tell pollsters they “strongly disapprove” of the job Trump is doing as president. That is double the percent that strongly approve (24%)."

Ultimately, this translates into people being angry enough to take action—such as canceling subscriptions or choosing different family vacations instead of Disney World.

"Other companies have behaved similarly: Paramount did what it apparently needed to do to get a merger with Skydance through Carr’s FCC, too. And Target very publicly rolled back lots of corporate DEI policies this spring," Morris noted.

He pointed out that the backlash against Target was so strong that it saw a notable decline in sales in the second quarter. The company's stock price fell by 24% between January and March compared to the previous year. By August, the CEO and COO announced their resignations, Forbes reported.

Morris urged corporations not to assume that 2025 is the same as 2024.

"Elections reward coalitions of voters, while markets respond to consumers — voters and non-voters — whose preferences show up not just on Election Day, but in audience ratings, subscription revenue, purchases (like trips to Disney World), etc," said Morris.

"If a president is unpopular with the broader public (and not just the out-party), you should expect friction for brands, platforms, and legacy media that appear to bend toward him."