Adam Hamilton, a Kansas megachurch pastor running as a Democrat, has a real chance of beating Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, but a Bulwark focus group of 2024 Trump voters suggests his faith isn’t the draw, according to the outlet's publisher, Sarah Longwell.
Hamilton has been tied, or ahead, in all New York Times-tracked polls since mid-September, never by more than a few points, in a state Trump won by 16. Longwell found that the focus group participants, who now disapprove of Trump, were driven more by distaste for Marshall than by any pull from Hamilton’s theology.
Voters had specific complaints, according to The Bulwark. Melaine, 53, said Marshall “knows what to say and how to say it to the people that he’s talking to” before going his own way, and faulted his ties to the pharmaceutical industry. Susan, 68, wondered whether he’s honest about where he lives, pointing to a cabin in Kansas and a home in Florida. Amanda, 41, backed Marshall for his abortion stance but couldn’t name accomplishments and grumbled about taxes. Longwell noted they didn’t just blame Trump; they had their own gripes about the senator.
Marshall has been severely hurt by coverage of his history of suing and arresting patients at his OB-GYN practice who failed to pay medical bills. One recent Hamilton ad features a woman who says she was arrested at home over a missed $50 payment to Marshall’s practice. Ashlee, 50, said it “feels true.” Melaine said her own dealings with Marshall’s office left her with the same impression.
Longwell also credited Hamilton’s approach. In a September Times/Siena poll, most likely Kansas voters called the Democratic Party too far left, but only about a third said that about Hamilton. His years leading a large congregation, she argued, made him a comfortable communicator. Susan said she found him more approachable than Marshall because of his community work.
Hamilton casts himself as both liberal and conservative. Voters were wary but receptive. Steve, 53, said politicians say that sort of thing before taking office and then change. Ashlee said she isn’t sure Hamilton lives it, but that both can coexist.
Hesitation remains. Melaine plans to vote for Hamilton but is uneasy about his party and cultural issues, calling Marshall the worse option. Ashlee, who has attended Hamilton’s church, still leans toward Marshall, unsure the pastor’s skills carry over to the Senate.
Longwell’s conclusion was that the race turns on both Marshall’s weaknesses and Hamilton’s unthreatening style.