MAGA firebrand could be surprise casualty as Hispanic voters flee GOP: analyst

A sleeper upset could be brewing in Democrats' battle for the House, in the Tampa region of Florida — at least, if one candidate's internal polling is on the mark.

On Tuesday, a survey conducted by Hart Research on behalf of the Leela Gray campaign found incumbent MAGA Republican Anna Paulina Luna of Florida trailing, 51 to 46, in Florida's 13th Congressional District. Unaffiliated voters are backing Gray 56-39, and approval for President Donald Trump is sitting at just 43 percent. The sample's recalled vote in 2024 was for Trump by 12 points.

Internal polls are often only selectively released to show those that benefit the campaign's narrative; however, they can also sometimes pick up trends that other polls are missing, or inform campaigns about messaging that will be effective.

Gray describes herself on her campaign website as a retired Army Brigadier General and small business owner.

Florida's 13th District was represented by former Florida GOP governor turned Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist for years, and Luna was elected to the seat when Crist left to run an ill-fated fourth gubernatorial campaign. Since being elected, Luna has occasionally been a thorn in the GOP's side, including her opposition to how the Trump administration has handled the Jeffrey Epstein saga; nonetheless, she has been a reliable partisan footsoldier for the party on a majority of issues.

GOP strategist Mike Madrid had a blunt assessment of the new data, posting to X, "The loss of Hispanic Republicans is going to be one of the important subtexts coming out of this election cycle."

Madrid, who specializes in understanding trends among Hispanic voters, has long been sounding the alarm that Republicans are headed for an epic collapse in the midterms.