Democrats in Arizona have been crystal clear about their goal in 2024: follow up on the successes of 2022, when they won all of the top statewide offices, and wrest control of the legislature in the Grand Canyon State away from Republicans for the first time in nearly 60 years.
And nothing about how the July 30 primary elections went does anything to dampen the enthusiasm they can complete their takeover of Arizona’s government in November and usher in a new era of Democratic rule in a state that has gone from ruby red to deep purple in the last generation.
“It was another banner night for MAGA weirdos up and down the ballot, which can only mean good things for Democrats,” said Marilyn Rodriguez, a progressive lobbyist and campaign veteran. “We have to work hard, but this is gettable.”
Following Katie Hobbs’ election as governor in 2022, state and national Democrats set their sights on giving her a legislature she can partner with instead of fight withendlessly. To that end, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a group committed to winning Democratic majorities in statehouses across the country, swiftly announced that Arizona was among the handful of its top targets in 2024.
The DLCC has said it will spend $60 million in legislative races across the nation, and with Arizona making up one-third of the legislative chambers the group hopes to flip from Republican control to Democratic majorities, there’s little doubt that millions of those dollars will end up flooding into the state.
After four years with both legislative chambers closely divided — Republicans control the state House of Representatives 31-29 and the Senate 16-14 — Democrats worked early to set the stage to give them the best chance to win the two seats they need in each chamber to take the reins away from the GOP.
They devised a roadmap for how to do that, then set about recruiting candidates in their targeted districts. They’ve helped those candidates organize their campaigns, canvass neighborhoods and win local support.
Perhaps most importantly, they’ve helped them raise money — tons of it, as every Democratic candidate in target legislative districts ended the second quarter with more money raised than their GOP opponents. And since many of those Republicans had primary challengers of their own, Democrats in some races have hit the general election home stretch with significant financial advantages.
It was probably as good a primary as Republicans could have hoped for.
– Barrett Marson, Republican campaign advisor
Republicans have been working for months to raise the money to compete with the well-funded effort from Democrats, though few expect they’ll be able to go dollar-for-dollar against the challengers. As of mid-July, when the most recent campaign finance reports were due, political committees lining up to boost Democratic legislative candidates had almost $2 million in the bank, while PACs created to defend the GOP majorities were sitting just shy of $1.4 million on hand.
That monetary advantage will be needed for Democrats to succeed, though some Republicans are breathing a bit easier this week than they had been before the primary election.
“It was probably as good a primary as Republicans could have hoped for,” said Barrett Marson, a Republican campaign advisor.
Chief among the reasons that Marson and other Republicans are feeling better about holding the legislative majority is Vince Leach’s victory over incumbent Sen. Justine Wadsack in a Tucson-area district.
Wadsack won election in the new district in 2022 — defeating Leach, who was a sitting senator — and has spent her time in office generating drama and bouncing from one controversy to the next. Among other things, she appeared on an antisemitic talk show, called 9/11 an “inside job,” tried to criminalize homelessness and picked a fight with the Arizona School for the Deaf and Blind that threatened to end its operations. Most recently, she claimed political persecution after she was pulled over for going 71 mph in a 35 mph zone back in March and refused to sign a traffic citation for criminal speeding.
Leach is conservative, but built his legislative career on being a business-first Republican. Marson said his politics and policy positions will, in many cases, be identical to Wadsack’s, but he’s a markedly better candidate in what should be a safe Republican district because he doesn’t have “the crazy baggage” that Wadsack does.
“Wadsack is so bad, she put it in play,” he said. “But that district now is probably unwinnable for Democrats.”
And that, said GOP campaign consultant and pollster Paul Bentz, makes it much more difficult for Democrats to win a Senate majority because there are just two viable seats they can pick up, and they must win both to take control of the Senate.
Democratic efforts, Bentz said, are likely to shift heavily to Legislative District 2, where Sen. Shawnna Bolick is facing a challenge from state Rep. Judy Schwiebert, and Legislative District 13, which sees Sen. J.D. Mesnard defending his seat from retired teacher Sharon Winters.
“Those will be the two toughest races in the entire state,” Marson said.
For their part, Democrats aren’t convinced that Leach’s victory over Wadsack changes their outlook in the district.
“You’re just replacing a woman conspiracy theorist with an old man conspiracy theorist,” Rodriguez said. “I’m not sure that’s the win Republicans think it is.”
Marcela Taracena, a spokeswoman for the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the local arm of the national DLCC, said there’s no daylight between Leach and Wadsack on the policies they support — policies that aren’t popular in the district and that Democratic nominee John McClean opposes.
“Leach has a long track record, but he’s been much better at hiding it because he’s quieter,” she said.
While Wadsack’s controversies and record was high-profile, Taracena said it’s the job of Democrats to let voters know how Leach is cut from the same political cloth. To that end, the ADLCC has already sought to paint him as “extreme” and “corrupt,” pointing to his many votes as a legislator to restrict abortion, cut school funding and gut health care coverage for Arizonans.
Every Democrat on the ticket is basically running against Trump and his weirdos. They’re all the same.
– Marilyn Rodriguez, progressive lobbyist and campaign veteran
And even in a more general sense, Democrats see a lot of good news in Tuesday’s primary election. The MAGA purge of more moderate Republicans continued unabated, said Ben Scheel, a political strategist for Opportunity Arizona, a liberal advocacy organization. He said victories by Sen. Wendy Rogers and Mark Finchem over pragmatic GOP lawmakers who sometimes bucked their party shows that the Republican Party continues to “get more extreme.”
And there were clear signs of weakness among some of the Republican candidates that Scheel said would carry over to the general election. For instance, Democrat Stephanie Simacek got more votes in the primary election in the House race for a north Phoenix district than either of the GOP candidates, even though Republicans have a registration advantage. And in Tucson, Rep. Rachel Jones won, but not by much.
“You see a more clear path to victory now,” Scheel said. “I feel very bullish for Democrats taking one or both chambers because Republicans continue to put up candidates who are not strong.”
Bolstering the Democrats’ efforts are a rejuvenated base following Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race and Kamala Harris’ ascent to the top of the ticket. That has translated into more resources and more volunteers for Democrats at all levels.
And abortion, which has proven to be a winning issue for Democrats across the country, will be on the ballot in Arizona in the form of a constitutional amendment to guarantee reproductive rights, and will be a centerpiece of virtually every Democrat’s campaign up and down the ballot.
“Enthusiasm is up,” said Samantha Paisley, the DLCC’s national press secretary. “The stakes couldn’t be higher. Every issue that voters actually care about is decided by the state legislatures.”
Whether the Democratic quest to capture the Arizona Legislature succeeds will hinge on whether they can convince voters the GOP candidates are too extreme.
“The Republicans are just weird and out of the mainstream,” Rodriguez said. “Every Democrat on the ticket is basically running against Trump and his weirdos. They’re all the same.”
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