'Bombshell' report says GOP candidate's early voter data was so bad it 'sent a chill'

Florida Republicans are nervous about how Rep. Byron Donalds’ campaign for governor is shaping up two days before Election Day, according to a new report. His Democratic rival’s camp is gloating.

Axios reported Sunday that Florida Republicans “aren’t panicking about sluggish turnout” for the midterms, but quoted one GOP elder as saying, “We’re white-knuckled.”

“The early voting data sent a chill through Republican ranks in Tallahassee last week: What if the polling assumptions about stronger Republican turnout were wrong?” Axios’ Marc Caputo and Andrew Pantazi wrote.

Devon Hesano, press secretary for Democrat David Jolly’s campaign, called it a “bombshell piece.”

“Bombshell piece in @axios details early voting data for Byron Donalds that is so awful it ‘sent a chill through Republican ranks in Tallahassee,’” Hesano wrote on X. “Turnout is so good for @davidjollyfl that Byron ‘could need to win the Election Day vote by a 2:1 ratio.’”

Axios reported that Donalds’ race is Republicans’ biggest concern, though most polls show him narrowly ahead of Jolly. Donalds has raised $176 million to Jolly’s $28 million.

Even so, Republicans led Democrats in early ballots cast by just 3 percentage points as of Sunday morning, according to Axios. That’s much lower than in the past two general elections, and it comes despite an 11-point Republican registration advantage.

Donalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes, according to internal Democratic and GOP estimates shared with Axios. To overcome that, he could need to win the Election Day vote by a 2-to-1 ratio. Axios called that “a tall order,” but noted that Republicans have delivered huge Election Day margins before, notably in 2022.

Gov. Ron DeSantis sounded the alarm last week.

“I don’t necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don’t think the turnout is as strong as we would like to see,” DeSantis said, according to Axios.

Republican turnout is weakest in parts of the Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties Donalds lost in the GOP primary. In those counties, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below 2022, compared with 1.1 points below in counties Donalds won, according to University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald.

Democratic strategist Steve Schale found that roughly 60,000 more Republicans than Democrats who waited until Election Day in 2022 have already voted this year. That could shrink the GOP’s usual Election Day advantage.

“Just a few weeks ago I didn’t think I would be feeling like this,” a top consultant for one of the statewide races told Axios. “It’s not panic. At least not yet.”

Republicans have also quietly fretted that racism could hurt Donalds, who is Black, according to Axios' reporting.

“We’re about to run the biggest experiment to see how racist some of our voters are,” a longtime Republican consultant told the outlet. The consultant called the counties Donalds lost “more culturally Confederate” than the rest of Florida.

MAGA influencer Laura Loomer made a similar point on X Saturday: “During the primary, he underperformed in the Panhandle and if people think skin color didn’t play a role in that, they are naive.”

State GOP chair Evan Power brushed off the worries.

“We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this,” Power told Axios. “A lot of the nerves here are because the last time we had a close election was eight years ago, and people forgot what a close election looks like here.”

Florida Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 1.5 million, Axios noted, and the state GOP is better funded and organized than Florida Democrats.