Renowned strategist names Tuesday primary race that could define Democrats' 2026 fate

A veteran Democratic strategist revealed the primary race he's watching as the polls close on Tuesday night.

David Axelrod, a former senior advisor to President Barack Obama, said on CNN's election night coverage that he will be watching the primary election in Iowa with a keen eye. Not only is it a state that President Donald Trump carried in 2024, but it could also be a bellwether for how Democrats can expect to fare in the 2026 midterm elections in November, he argued.

"I'd keep my eye on Iowa. This is an important race tonight," Axelrod said. "Donald Trump won Iowa by 13 points. He's now seven points underwater in Iowa because Iowa has been hammered."

Iowa's marquee race is the Democratic primary for Senate, where state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls are competing to take on the open seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. On the Republican side, Rep. Ashley Hinson, who holds Trump's endorsement, is considered the frontrunner against former state Sen. Jim Carlin.

The governor's race is also on the ballot, with Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra the favorite for the Republican nomination following Gov. Kim Reynolds' retirement. In the House, District 3 is considered a toss-up, with Republican Zach Nunn facing Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.

Voters in six states went to the polls on Tuesday to determine the general election races: Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey, South Dakota and California.

Trump congratulated candidates whom he endorsed who won their elections in posts on Truth Social. One of those people was Rep. Tom Kean (R-NJ), who ran unopposed and has been missing from his office for the last three months.