CNN's Harry Enten examined the odds of Democrats taking back control of the U.S. Senate, and he said the chatter is growing louder in the prediction markets.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and while polling strongly suggests Democrats are poised to win control of the U.S. House in November's midterms, that possibility seems a bit more daunting in the upper chamber.
"Youdon't have to listen veryclosely to hear Democratstalking about the Senate," said CNN's John Berman, introducing the chief data analyst. "Thewhispers are getting louder.Could Democrats take back the Senate? A year ago, it seemedlike it was an impossible task.What about now?"
"I've never whispered once inmy life, John Berman, but look,the voices are getting louderand louder and louder," Enten began. "They maybe, in fact, a Festivus miraclefor Democrats because just take a look at the Kalshi predictionmarket. This is the Dems' chancesto win 2026 Senate races, andthese are all GOP-held seats.Look at this in North Carolina.What are we looking at? Roy Cooper, the Democratic nomineethere, an 84 percent chance. In Maine, could they knock off Susan Collins? That, of course, was astate won by Kamala Harris, a71 percent chance there. Alaska, Alaska, which hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since2008, a 56 percent chance there, andthen Sherrod Brown, the verylikely Democratic nominee, a 54 percentchance in Ohio. Of course, Sherrod Brown was knocked offback in 2024, but I will note hewas re-elected during a Trumpmidterm back in 2018."
"If Democrats pulled off the Festivus miracle and went fourfor four, which the predictionmarket says, hey, it's a realpossibility, look at this, theywould, in fact, get to 51 Senate seats," Enten added. "You win up in Maine,okay, you win in Ohio, youwin in North Carolina, andyou win the big state of Alaska, which we got all the wayback, what about 1867, it's solarge. That would, in fact, getyou to 51 Senate seats. So, youknow, it was something that waswhispering about, but, like me,getting louder and louder andlouder."
Enten dug into the polling data and concluded that President Donald Trump's sagging approval was dragging down Republican candidates, as well.
"Let'stake a look at Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, let's take theaggregate totals in all of them," he said. "Look back in the 2024 election.Across those three, Trump won byseven points, but look at hisnet approval rating now. His netapproval rating way down, he'sno longer popular in thesestates. He's at 10 pointsunderwater, so all of a suddenyou're thinking to yourself,hey, you know what, these are Trump-won states, but he's nolonger popular. He has becomequite unpopular."
"The otherlittle nugget I'll note is, youknow, we said four for four, butthere is a fifth possibilitybecause you got a Texas backup,right?" Enten added. "Choice for Texas Senate, James Talarico versus John Cornyn. Cornyn is only up by apoint. Ken Paxton only up bytwo, so maybe you lose in astate like Alaska, but, hey, youcan sub in a Texas and still getto 51 for Dems. So it's not somuch of a long shot, at leastanymore."