As the political prospects for Republicans worsen ahead of November’s midterm elections, the GOP is increasingly playing defense over its years-long grip on state governments.
That’s particularly true for gubernatorial elections, as Democrats could win a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010. Currently, Republicans boast a 26-24 gubernatorial advantage over Democrats.
This November, voters will choose governors in 36 states. Thirteen of those races are considered competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, which ranks the competitiveness of races for governor, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House.
Some of this cycle’s most competitive races are in politically divided states such as Nevada and Wisconsin. But Republicans also are playing defense in several deeply conservative states, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
Last week, the Cook Political Report moved its ratings of the Florida and Texas governor races from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. That means the GOP candidates are still favored in those states, but “given the grim political environment for the GOP, we can’t rule out the possibility of an upset in one or both contests,” wrote Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor.
Democratic control of more governors’ offices could mean more bipartisan compromise — or gridlock — in state capitols. In Nevada, however, a Democratic governor could initiate a new era of policymaking: Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has vetoed more than 160 bills approved by the Democratic-controlled legislature during his term.
In states such as Alaska, Georgia and Ohio, Democratic governors could deliver new checks on Republican lawmakers who have enjoyed years of legislative control.
The competitive races for state executives come as Democrats seek to rebuild state power after years of Republican dominance in statehouses. In addition to controlling a majority of governor’s offices, the GOP has held a majority of state legislative seats and chambers since 2010.
Democrats’ improving prospects are evidence of the broader political challenges facing Republicans across the country, said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.
“It’s a rebuke of the Trump model, and especially the Republican Trump model,” he said. “But it’s also something that isn’t uncommon for midterms.”
With total Republican control of Washington, Democrats are benefiting from widespread dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump over the Iran war and the high prices of healthcare, housing, groceries and energy affecting nearly every part of daily life.
Despite winning his previous campaigns by double digits, Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is facing a close competition with Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
“Our race is now a toss-up,” the subject line of a Sept. 29 fundraising email from the Abbott campaign reads.
Jones said the Texas Republican Party is still reeling from internal bloodletting after Attorney General Ken Paxton ousted incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in a heated primary contest. Paxton, whose political career has been largely defined by scandal, now trails Democrat James Talarico in most polling in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
To Jones, winning the Texas governor’s race is still a long shot for Democrats, but he said the president is the main reason it’s even competitive this cycle.
“It’s overwhelmingly a national phenomenon,” he said. “It has more to do with Donald Trump’s low approval ratings on both the handling of his job as president and his handling of the economy and just overall low favorability.”
Democratic wins for governor could bring divided government to some reliably conservative states.
While shared rule used to be common in states, most now are dominated by one party that controls both legislative chambers and the governor’s office. Power is split between the parties in only 11 states, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Last week, Democratic Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand pledged to bring “divided government once again” to Des Moines. Favored to win over Republican Zach Lahn, Sand said split power would bring more balance to state policymaking after years of GOP control.
If Iowa Democrats can prevent the GOP from winning back a legislative supermajority, they would hold more power over lawmaking and gubernatorial appointments than they’ve enjoyed for years.
Democrats flipped two Iowa state Senate seats in special elections last year to break the GOP’s veto-proof supermajority there. Senate Democrats have already used their newly won power by rejecting appointments, including a high-profile nomination for the leader of the state’s Health and Human Services Department.
Democratic wins for governor in November could bring divided power to Alaska, Ohio, Georgia, Florida and Texas. But divided government could vanish in other states.
In Kansas, Republicans are poised to gain even more control as state Senate President Ty Masterson leads in gubernatorial polling over Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher. If elected, Masterson would replace Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, delivering a trifecta of Republican control to Topeka.
Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican, said this election cycle follows a familiar pattern for the party that controls Washington.
“We see this in every midterm: The party in power sometimes takes a beating, and I think that that’s what’s going to happen in this cycle,” he said.
Scott is favored to win reelection next month, which would keep power divided in Montpelier if Democrats continue to control the legislature as expected.
The Republican Governors Association did not comment on the party’s prospects for maintaining its national advantage. In a statement, spokesperson Kollin Crompton said GOP governors and candidates remain focused on lowering taxes, unleashing American energy and keeping communities safe.
“Contrast that with Democrat governors who hurt working families with tax increases and stunt job growth with bureaucratic regulation; the choice in November is clear,” he said. “If Democrats gain control, these states will turn into hellscapes reminiscent of California and Illinois.”
In many states, the power of newly elected governors will largely be shaped by the partisan composition of legislatures.
Republicans have held a grip on state power across the country since 2010, when they won hundreds of legislative seats and picked up control of 20 legislative chambers during the first midterm election of President Barack Obama’s presidency.
Democrats hope to flip 500 seats across the country this cycle. But even with 15 legislative chambers identified as competitive this year, it’s unlikely Democrats will rebuild their legislative ranks to pre-2010 levels, when the party controlled 60 of 99 legislative chambers nationwide (Nebraska has a unicameral legislature).
Republicans currently hold 4,044 state legislative seats, compared with 3,227 for Democrats, according to Katy Owens Hubler, director of elections and redistricting at the National Conference of State Legislatures.
“Polls have been showing more Democratic enthusiasm,” she said,” but I think it’s likely Republicans will maintain their advantage in terms of absolute numbers of seats.”
Control of legislatures will not only affect state policymaking, but will likely shape the next wave of congressional redistricting, said Will Rusche, vice president of marketing and communications at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats at the state level.
Set off by a White House push to give Republicans more seats in the U.S. House, 10 states have completed mid-decade redistricting — a phenomenon unseen since the 1800s.
Rusche said the outcome of November’s governor and legislative races will play a major role in whether Democrats can win back federal power.
“It all runs through statehouses,” he said. “The majorities we win this year will determine what powers Democrats have, and you know the path to power in Congress and the presidency in 2028 and going forward.”
Stateline reporter Kevin Hardy can be reached at khardy@stateline.org
This story was originally produced by Stateline, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Ohio Capital Journal, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
Ohio Capital Journal is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Ohio Capital Journal maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor David Dewitt for questions: info@ohiocapitaljournal.com.