Kevin Hardy, Stateline

People in Marsha Keene’s community are already struggling to cover the basics.

Most of the clients Keene serves at the Susanna Wesley Family Learning Center in southeast Missouri are working but still rely on federal food assistance to keep up with ever-increasing costs.

The center provides a domestic violence shelter, parenting education and summer camps to struggling families stretched thin by living expenses. Keene, the center’s CEO, worries about how her clients can absorb significant cuts to food stamps, officially called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.

“I don’t see communities just being able to absorb that need,” she said. “I don’t know what the impact is going to be yet, but I cannot imagine that it’s going to be good.”

Billions in cuts to federal food assistance are looming as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a major tax and spending package that would slash federal spending on domestic programs to extend tax cuts passed during President Donald Trump’s first term. U.S. House Republicans passed the package in a 215-214 vote, and it’s now before the Senate.

Cuts to SNAP would affect residents of every state in all types of communities, but advocates fear the fallout could especially hit rural people, who are more dependent on food stamps, the largest anti-hunger program in the nation.

The legislation that passed the House would cut food assistance by an estimated $300 billion, according to the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. One key provision of the bill would expand work requirements to include people between 55 and 64 years old and those with children aged 7 or older. It would also tighten rules for counties with high unemployment rates.

Together, the changes would remove more than 3 million Americans from the program in an average month, reducing spending by more than $92 billion over 10 years, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The legislation will likely face changes in Senate negotiations. The measure was endorsed in a letter signed by 20 of the nation’s 27 Republican governors.

A greater share of rural residents currently rely on SNAP than those in metropolitan areas, according to the Food Research & Action Center, a nonprofit focusing on hunger and health among the impoverished. Rural hunger is already on the rise and grocery stores face an uphill battle to keep going in the most isolated parts of the country.

In her corner of Missouri, Keene said, limited job opportunities leave many workers struggling to cover housing and grocery bills. Nearly a quarter of residents live below the poverty line in Mississippi County — almost double the state and national averages.

She recalled her own recent trip to the grocery store, where high prices caused her to forgo items on her list such as orange juice and meat. “And I have a pretty good job,” she said.

“The SNAP cuts are definitely going to make an impact because we already have hungry kids.”

‘I’d probably close the doors’

The National Grocers Association has opposed the potential cuts, saying SNAP provides not only critical food, but also meaningful boosts to local employment and economies. The organization, which represents retail and wholesale grocers, said cuts will particularly hurt independent and rural stores.

“Cutting SNAP would harm the most vulnerable Americans and threaten the viability of community grocery stores that are depended upon by their local economies and neighborhoods,” the association said in a May statement.

Facing competitive pressures from online retailers and big-box stores with lower prices, rural grocery stores are already struggling to remain viable.

Corliss Hassler shops the produce case at the Post 60 Market in Emerson, Neb., in February 2024. Hassler is one of the community members who invested to open the cooperative market. Advocates fear that cuts to federal food aid would hurt rural grocery stores already struggling to remain viable. (Kevin Hardy/Stateline)

But deep cuts to SNAP would have an uneven impact on rural stores.

For Kay Voss, the cuts would be catastrophic at her Stratton Country Market in southwest Nebraska. She estimates 40% of sales are paid for with SNAP.

“I’d probably close the doors,” she said.

That’s a possibility with or without federal changes: Struggling to turn a profit in the town of about 340 people, Voss said the market likely won’t last much longer.

“There’s nothing to be made on the grocery side,” she said.

Several grocery store operators interviewed by Stateline were more optimistic. Some said they believed locals were using their federal benefits at chains in nearby cities for cheaper prices or anonymity.

Tasha Malay, one of the owners of Malay’s Market in western Kansas, said SNAP made up less than 2% of the store’s sales last year.

While she believes cuts to the federal program are “a terrible idea” broadly, she said it won’t make a huge difference for her store.

“I think the people that qualify are utilizing it, but I think that they’re spending the dollars elsewhere,” she said.

Profit margins are famously slight in the grocery industry, especially for rural stores facing an onslaught of competition from dollar stores whose bulk purchasing allows them to offer much lower prices.

“When they’re operating on such thin margins anyways, that could have a huge impact on whether or not the store can remain open,” said Carlie Jonas, a policy associate at the nonprofit Center for Rural Affairs.

The center has worked with lawmakers to preserve rural grocery stores, which provide locals with social connections in addition to fresh meat and produce. Proposed legislation to fund $2 million in rural grocery assistance did not win approval from the Nebraska legislature because of the state’s challenging budget cycle, Jonas said.

That figure, though, pales in comparison to new costs Nebraska could face if the proposed SNAP changes are enacted.

One component of the federal legislation would shift billions of costs from the federal government to states to administer SNAP.

A Nebraska-based think tank estimates the state would have to spend at least $39 million a year to make up for the lost federal funds.

“Every single state is going to have to make some really difficult decisions,” Jonas said.

In Wisconsin, state officials estimate the changes would cost the state $314 million per year.

“This is over a quarter billion dollars each year that Wisconsin couldn’t use for our health care, our roads, our schools, or our economy,” Wisconsin Medicaid Director Bill Hanna said in a May statement.

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, downplayed the impacts of the changes.

“We are not cutting SNAP,” he said May 25 on CBS News’ political show “Face the Nation.” “We’re working in the elements of fraud, waste and abuse. SNAP for example, listen to the statistics, in 2024, over $11 billion in SNAP payments were erroneous.”

A PolitiFact breakdown published May 29 disputed Johnson’s remarks, concluding that three independent analyses show millions of people could lose SNAP benefits.

‘It’s time to sound the alarm’

Food insecurity is already on the rise in rural America.

Even in heartland areas where farming is central to the local economy, many have trouble accessing fresh and affordable food.

“We’re seeing food insecurity across the entire state rise, but really disproportionately in our more rural areas,” said Tim Williams, government affairs and advocacy officer at Food Bank for the Heartland, an Omaha, Neb.-based nonprofit serving 93 counties across Nebraska and Iowa.

Volunteers with Food Bank for the Heartland distribute food at a mobile pantry at an Omaha, Nebraska, elementary school in Apri 2025.. (Photo courtesy of Food Bank for the Heartland)

Williams said cuts to the SNAP program will drive up demand on food banks, especially in rural areas that have long struggled with access and transportation to secure fresh foods. In sparsely populated areas such as western Nebraska, it’s difficult to get to grocery stores — if they exist at all.

“There are counties in the state where there are more cows than people, and so things are very spread out,” he said. “They can be very difficult to get to. Sometimes there’s only one pantry or one grocery store in a county.”

The federal food program works in tandem with food banks to keep people from going hungry, Williams said. And cuts to federal aid will unquestionably affect nonprofits.

“It will put a disproportionate burden on the charitable food system that they can’t sustain because they’re already seeing too many people,” he said.

Susie Boelter, executive director of the North Country Food Bank, said it’s time to expand food assistance — not cut it. She told the North Dakota Monitor her nonprofit has experienced “staggering increases” in need over the past three years.

For every meal the food bank provides across its 21-county service area in North Dakota, SNAP provides nine, she said.

“Any additional cuts will put a ton of pressure on our emergency food system,” Boelter said. “Food banks are good at getting food into the hands of people who need it, but it’s time to sound the alarm.”

Red states are echoing President Donald Trump’s quest to slash the size and cost of the federal government with their own initiatives aimed at making government smaller and more efficient.

In the first hours of his second term, Trump signed an executive order creating a temporary commission he dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency. He first announced DOGE, named after a viral meme and a cryptocurrency, in November as an effort led by billionaire Elon Musk to find billions in federal cuts.

In recent weeks, GOP governors and lawmakers have set up their own government efficiency task forces and committees to find ways to cut state spending.

The Texas House of Representatives recently announced plans for a 13-member Delivery of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, committee that will examine state agencies for inefficiencies, and Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said a DOGE bill would be one of his top legislative priorities. GOP leaders in Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Wisconsin have recently announced similar ventures.

Conservatives have long sought to shrink the size and cost of government. And it’s common practice for officials from both parties to hire outside consultants to help reduce inefficiency or waste in school, state and city bureaucracies. But the DOGE effort is gaining new steam as Republicans look to fall in line with Trump and blue and red states alike face massive budget gaps that will require some combination of spending cuts or increased taxes.

Democrats, however, argue that many states already have government watchdogs and efficiency panels, so the efforts might be redundant. And Democratic governors also have made gains in cutting red tape and increasing state efficiencies.

In her Condition of the State speech in January, Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds noted recent efforts to consolidate state agencies, centralize programs and reduce regulations, which she said had already saved Iowans $217 million. In 2023, the governor signed legislation to shrink the state’s 37 executive-level Cabinet agencies down to 16 and changed some of the powers of the governor and attorney general.

“We were doing DOGE before DOGE was a thing,” Reynolds said.

But in her address, Reynolds announced the launch of a state DOGE advisory body, which will be led by Emily Schmitt, a prominent business leader and Reynolds campaign donor. To pass meaningful property tax reform, Reynolds said Iowa must find more savings in state and local government.

Iowa Democrats noted that the state constitution already requires a government watchdog, the state auditor — currently Rob Sand, the only Democrat elected to statewide office.

In 2023, Reynolds signed a bill limiting the auditor’s access to certain information and barring his office from suing state agencies.

Sand, widely speculated to be a potential gubernatorial candidate, called it the “greatest pro-corruption bill and the worst perversion of checks and balances in Iowa’s history.”

“We have someone who has a whole office whose job is to work on this,” said Democratic state Rep. Adam Zabner. “I think we’re more likely to find efficiencies through the state auditor who Iowans elected to that role than we are through a major supporter of the governor’s campaigns.”

Zabner serves on the legislature’s long-standing government efficiency review committee, which examines state government operations every two years.

Zabner said it’s unclear how much true savings were realized from Reynolds’ realignment, as the state previously had hundreds of unfilled jobs. And he said those cuts haven’t necessarily improved the delivery of state services.

“We still have trouble getting all of our nursing homes inspected,” he said. “And there’s a lot of services like that where the delivery hasn’t really been improved.”

The Democratic Governors Association noted that blue-state governors also have taken steps to make state government more efficient and responsive. In November, Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro took executive action to speed up state permitting for economic development projects. And Colorado Gov. Jared Polis used a table saw to cut through a pile of outdated executive orders on dormant state committees and energy efficiency in December — the latest in his push to make state government more efficient and responsive to taxpayers.

“This isn’t a flashy trend for Governor Polis, it’s something he has carried out during his time in office,” Polis spokesperson Shelby Wieman said in a statement.

Waste or vital service?

Across the country, it’s unclear how much might be cut in efforts to weed out waste or inefficiencies — terms themselves that are entirely subjective.

“One person’s concept of waste is another person’s vital service,” said William Glasgall, public finance adviser at the Volcker Alliance, a nonprofit that works to support public sector workers.

Glasgall said government services are not designed to operate as efficiently as for-profit companies.

While many companies run multiple factory shifts per day to get the most out of their capital investment, schools and government offices with different missions mostly sit empty overnight, on weekends and during breaks. Similarly, cities must staff up police and fire department resources for disasters, even if their crews and equipment idle for long stretches.

Still, Glasgall said, governments have plenty of line items worth scrutinizing.

He pointed to the numerous tax breaks, incentives and abatements states award to individuals and businesses. In a paper last year, the Volcker Alliance estimated these programs reduce state revenues by $1 trillion a year — almost three times the amount state and local governments spent on education in 2021.

Often those forgone revenues are not transparent to taxpayers or scrutinized by state audits or budget offices, Glasgall said.

States contemplating cuts do so from a relatively strong position: A booming economy and federal pandemic aid ballooned state spending and reserve funds.

“States are cutting from a very, very high base,” Glasgall said. “So the cuts they’re making, I’m not sure they’re going to be terribly painful right now.”

Wisconsin Republican state Rep. Amanda Nedweski said the state should constantly be scrutinizing its operations and expenses. But she said the legislature often relies on agencies to self-monitor.

“We sort of operate state government in silos,” she said, “and there can often be redundancy in functions and redundancy in positions.”

Nedweski is leading the new state Assembly committee on Government Operations, Accountability, and Transparency, or GOAT.

Nedweski said the committee will take a big-picture look at state government but is also prepared to dive deep into issues such as regulation reform, the use of state office space, and how Wisconsin can leverage technology such as artificial intelligence to increase efficiency.

The GOP-controlled legislature will likely disagree with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers on budget priorities and programs. But Nedweski said the new committee can suggest meaningful changes that don’t necessarily require a reduction in state services.

“There’s a lot of things that can be reviewed and spending that can be shifted without being cut so we’re more efficiently and productively using our resources,” she said.

Nationwide coordination

The American Legislative Exchange Council, a conservative group known as ALEC that works with lawmakers nationwide, is pushing similar efforts in statehouses across the country.

While that organization ultimately wants to shrink governments, it views examining the effectiveness and costs of existing programs as a commonsense first step.

“One of the things we keep going back to is just the review of current government spending,” said Jonathan Williams, ALEC’s president and chief economist. “In so many cases, performance audits are not done on a regular basis in programs to look for these efficiencies.”

The organization just launched a government efficiency coalition to give state lawmakers best practices “to optimize all levels of government.”

“From our ALEC perspective, we hope that Washington [D.C.] does less going forward,” he said, “and the states and local governments probably need to do more in some cases.”

Many states will be confronting tough spending decisions as revenues flatten or decline.

“So, it’s going to be important to really tighten the belt, right-size government programs, and look for ways to provide those core government services more efficiently so we’re able to deliver real services to those truly at need,” Williams said. “And that, I think, is something that really plays into really a red-state or a blue-state outlook.”

But making governments more efficient can be a battle of inches.

Last week, the newly formed Kansas Senate Committee on Government Efficiency considered a bill that would nix requirements for certain state filings regarding labor organizations, tax abatements and water easements.

Clay Barker, general counsel for Kansas’ Republican secretary of state, told the committee that many of those documents are filed with other state offices and do little aside from creating work for the office.

If passed, the legislation is expected to save 400 hours of one-time IT labor and an ongoing 50 hours of labor annually, Barker said. But officials hope it will encourage other agencies to examine their operations for inefficiencies.

“This bill will not revolutionize state government,” he said.

OVERLAND PARK, Kan. — Before the election results began rolling in, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly took the stage, confident that Democrats could break the long-held Republican supermajority that has thwarted many of her legislative priorities.

“If we do that, you will not only make my life better, you will make the life of every Kansan better,” Kelly told supporters Tuesday.

But despite the governor’s optimism and the efforts of her $2 million political action committee, the GOP retained its veto-proof majority in both the state House and Senate after Democrats failed to flip key suburban seats.

Even before the outcome of the presidential race became clear, Kansas Democrats milling around a hotel ballroom were heard muttering “unbelievable” and “what a disaster” as legislative results trickled in.

Election results in Kansas were indicative of the national strength of Republicans, who not only won the White House in a historic election, but also strengthened their hold on state governments across the union.

Before the election, the GOP controlled 57 state legislative chambers, while Democrats controlled 41 (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan). Many legislative races were still too close to call Wednesday, so it’s unclear exactly how many chambers each party will control once results are final.

But Republicans defended or expanded their control in several state capitols — and won the nation’s only tightly contested gubernatorial race with the election of former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte as New Hampshire’s next governor.

“It was a very good night for Republicans, but we still have to see how it shakes out at the very granular level,” said Benjamin Melusky, an associate professor of political science at Old Dominion University in Virginia.

In some cases, early results show Republicans broke up Democratic trifectas, in which one party controls both legislative chambers and the governorship. Those flips could create less left-leaning policymaking as lawmakers are compelled to negotiate legislation across the aisle.

“Come January, we will look for every opportunity to work with our Republican colleagues in a bipartisan manner to put the people of Michigan first,” Michigan House Speaker Joe Tate, a Democrat, said in a statement after results showed his party will lose control of the lower chamber. “We will fulfill our duty as the voice of reason and do our best to make our mark on legislation that moves through the state legislature.”

Michigan Republicans’ capture of the state House ends a Democratic trifecta they achieved in 2022 and adds a check on the power of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

House Minority Leader Matt Hall said in a statement that his party’s victory showed Michiganders “want leaders who put them first, uphold the rule of law, and advocate for accountability at every level of government.”

Republicans also are poised to enjoy more influence in Minnesota, where preliminary results show they flipped three key state House districts — resulting in an even 67-67 split between Republicans and Democrats. Recounts are expected, but if the tie holds, it means Democrats will lose the 2022 trifecta they seized after flipping the state Senate and maintaining control of the House and governorship.

That trifecta allowed the legislature to approve bills guaranteeing the right to abortion, providing free meals for kids at school, restoring voting rights to formerly incarcerated people with felony convictions, and making the state a “trans refuge” for children seeking gender-affirming care. Those were all signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz, Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in the presidential election.

Supermajorities

Vermont Democrats lost their state House supermajority after Republicans picked up 18 seats in the 150-member chamber.

In South Carolina, Republicans ousted four Democrats in the state Senate, giving them a supermajority in that chamber for the first time since Reconstruction, the South Carolina Daily Gazette reported.

The GOP also successfully defended such veto-proof majorities in several states, which could portend even more conservative policymaking.

In Idaho, Republicans were poised to pick up four legislative seats based on unofficial results, adding to the GOP’s already robust supermajority.

Tennessee Democrats lost all four of the state House races they had targeted in hopes of chipping away at the Republican supermajority in Nashville.

And in Kentucky, Republicans’ partisan advantage remained unchanged in both chambers despite predictions by Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear that his party would “pick up seats” this cycle.

In Kansas, Democrats had hoped dismantling the two-thirds GOP supermajority could give the governor more influence over budget and tax policy and diminish the legislature’s ability to implement new abortion restrictions. This year, the legislature overrode Kelly’s veto of bills requiring hospitals and medical providers to report patients’ reasons for abortions to the state and creating a new “crime of coercion to obtain an abortion” in state law.

On Tuesday, Attorney General Kris Kobach said his fellow Republicans should leverage their partisan advantage to change the state constitution’s process of nominating people to the Kansas Supreme Court. Currently, justices are selected through a merit-based nomination process, but Kobach wants to move to a system of gubernatorial appointments with state Senate veto power.

“Kansans rejected the liberal agenda and expanded Republican super majorities,” Kobach posted on social media platform X. “Now it’s time to reform how we select our justices.”

A few Democratic gains

Still, this election saw a relatively low number of total flips in party control of legislative chambers, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. And Democrats did make some gains on Tuesday.

In North Carolina, Democrats appear to have broken up the Republican legislature’s veto-proof majority that has stymied Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. If early results hold, the change would enhance the policy influence of Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein when the legislature convenes next year.

“For too long, the supermajority has operated without checks, pursuing extreme agendas that left too many North Carolinians behind,” state Rep. Robert Reives, a Democrat and the House minority leader, said in a statement Tuesday.

Similarly, Wisconsin Democrats won several key state Senate races, breaking the Republican supermajority and laying the groundwork for Democrats to compete for a majority in 2026. The change stemmed largely from new legislative maps adopted this year after the state Supreme Court ruled the old maps unconstitutional. Early results show Wisconsin House Republicans holding their majority, with many incumbents defeating their challengers.

Before the election, only one state — Pennsylvania — had a split legislature, with Democrats controlling the state House and Republicans controlling the state Senate.

Democrats went into the Pennsylvania election with a one-seat House majority, while Republicans controlled the Senate 28-22. The split chambers stalled efforts such as Republican plans to pass more voter ID requirements and restrict abortion and Democratic plans to increase the minimum wage and strengthen civil rights for LGBTQ+ people.

Redistricting in Pennsylvania left both parties with fewer competitive seats, intensifying the race in just a few battlegrounds. While Republicans swept races for attorney general, treasurer and auditor and held their state Senate majority, state House races were still too close to call late Wednesday.

Democrats were in danger of losing their trifecta in Maine, but on Thursday it appeared the party had retained its majorities in both legislative chambers, the Maine Morning Star reported.

In Arizona, Democrats spent record amounts of money trying to flip control of the legislature. But preliminary results showed Democrats were poised to split the 30-member state Senate with Republicans, while the GOP maintained a slim majority in the state House.

This story first appeared in Stateline, a sibling site of Minnesota Reformer and part of the States Newsroom nonprofit news network.

It’s been a wild few months in the presidential race: President Joe Biden dropped out and Vice President Kamala Harris captured the Democratic nomination. Former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania and was targeted again at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Despite the historic lead-up to Election Day, the race has now settled into familiar territory: Much like 2020’s contest, top political strategists on both sides of the aisle expect control of the White House could come down to just a few thousand votes in a handful of battleground states.

“This is not going to be an election where you will see a landslide. It’s going to be won in the margins in six to seven swing states,” Democratic strategist Donna Brazile told a crowd of state lawmakers from across the country last month.

Brazile, who ran Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign, shared the stage with Republican strategist Kellyanne Conway, who managed Trump’s 2016 campaign and advised him in the White House.

Unsurprisingly, the pair disagreed on much.

But while speaking at the National Conference of State Legislatures in Kentucky, the two senior strategists framed the race similarly to the 2020 contest, when fewer than 50,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from an Electoral College tie.

“It is a different race. It has turned in very short time, but the issue set hasn’t changed at all,” Conway said. “And I think that’s what’s important here.”

Like last cycle, the two campaigns are pouring millions into Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In “The Deciders” series, States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization, explores the political issues and groups of voters that could make the difference in those seven states and, consequentially, in the race for the White House.

Unsurprisingly, economic issues — namely, stubbornly high prices — are proving central for many voters across the swing states. But voters also are concerned about immigration, abortion access and the future of the Supreme Court.

In states such as Michigan and Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, labor unions could prove instrumental for Harris after years of significant gains by organized labor.

In Georgia and North Carolina, Black voter turnout could make the difference, while Latino voters are closely divided in Nevada after helping propel Biden to victory there four years ago. In every swing state, campaigns are focused on all-important suburban voters.

The election’s outcome also could be shaped by the work of officials who have been debating who can vote and which votes should count since the mayhem of the last presidential contest.

Four years ago, a false narrative that questioned the security and integrity of elections took hold in some legislatures. New laws changed ballot-counting practices and made it more difficult to vote in many states, including swing states. In states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, there is broad concern that despite the checks and balances built into the voting system, local Republicans tasked with certifying elections will be driven by conspiracy theories and refuse to fulfill their duties if Trump loses again.

Fears that these efforts could sow chaos and delay results is not unfounded: Over the past four years, county officials in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania have refused to certify certain local elections.

With such a close race, voter turnout and motivation will be key in all the battleground states.

As in other swing states, North Carolina’s 16 Electoral College votes could hinge on how political independents vote, said Carter Wrenn, a longtime Republican strategist who has worked on many campaigns.

And those independents can be unpredictable in North Carolina: Their votes helped both Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Trump carry the state in the last two general elections.

“It’s the independents that are up for grabs, and they don’t mind splitting a ticket at all,” Wrenn said. “Ultimately, in the general election, that’s the key group.”

The economy

In every state this year, the economy is a central issue.

As Trump tries to fault Harris and Biden for the high costs of everyday living, polling shows voters blame Harris less for the situation than they did Biden — though likely voters profess more confidence in Trump’s ability to manage the economy.

For her part, Harris has unveiled plans to lower prices of rent, homebuying and groceries, arguing she will remain focused on the middle class from Day One, contrasting her ideas with what she characterizes as Trump’s catering to billionaires.

In Georgia, Republicans and Democrats alike have found success in recent statewide campaigns by highlighting similar kitchen table issues. After attending a Harris rally in Savannah last month, Georgia voter Sarah Damato said she doesn’t believe Trump will fight for the middle class.

At the event, the vice president told listeners she would lower costs by fighting corporate price-fixing and touted her proposal for a “care economy,” a set of progressive proposals including benefits for parents of newborns and credits for first-time homebuyers.

“Kamala Harris made it very evident today that the American family is the most important thing on her mind these days, and she’s going to make it easier for each one of us to have a brighter future,” Damato said.

In Kenosha, Wisconsin, meanwhile, Republican Party volunteer Sharon Buege said she supports the GOP ticket because she sees the race as a matter of “good versus evil.” Speaking outside a news conference by Trump running mate J.D. Vance, Buege said she opposed “the whole left agenda,” adding that her top issues in the race were border security, the economy, human trafficking, homelessness and “indoctrination” in public schools.

At that same news conference, a man who would only give his name as “John” said the economy and inflation mattered most: “I don’t need a reminder of why to support Trump. I can get that every time I go to the gas station or grocery store.”

Groups of voters

With Republicans looking to run up margins in rural parts of the battleground states and Democrats banking on big leads in cities, the suburbs remain pivotal.

In Georgia, diverse and growing suburbs have helped move the state from reliably red to purple.

In the state’s two largest suburban counties of Cobb and Gwinnett, Biden picked up more than 137,000 votes in 2020 over 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to data from the Georgia Secretary of State’s office. The same year, Trump boosted his total by just under 32,000 votes over his 2016 performance.

The Trump campaign boasts a mighty in-state operation: nearly 15,000 volunteers signing up between mid-July and the end of August, nearly 300 events scheduled for September, and 4,000 neighborhood organizers and canvassers — known as Trump Force Captains — joining the cause in July and August.

But Team Harris says they are running the largest Georgia operation of any Democratic presidential campaign cycle, with more than 200 campaign staff in 28 offices. Harris’ recent visit to the more conservative south side of the state marked her 16th trip to Georgia since becoming vice president and her seventh trip this year.

Harris is hoping to fire up the young, diverse Democratic base, but her team also is hoping she can hang onto or expand on Biden’s coalition of older, affluent, educated and largely white suburbanites.

“Those are the people who are actually kind of pivotal and who will modify or change their behavior,” said University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock.

“These people are largely Republicans, but they can’t bring themselves to vote for Donald Trump or for Republicans who are closely associated with him,” Bullock said.

Larry Ceisler, a Philadelphia public affairs executive and political analyst, said the four suburban Philadelphia counties surrounding Pennsylvania’s largest city are key to winning that state. Once a Republican bastion, the so-called collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery have swung strongly in the other direction since 2016.

That complicates messaging for both campaigns, Ceisler said. Trump’s anti-abortion stance and Harris’ effort to back away from her earlier statements against fracking — both positions that appeal to rural and western Pennsylvania voters — are potential liabilities in suburbs.

Democrats have a 343,000-voter registration advantage over Republicans in Pennsylvania. But the state has been decided by narrow margins in the last two presidential elections.

Daniel Mallinson, an associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg, noted that the Trump campaign has paid attention to Black and Latino voters.

“One of the weaknesses that Biden had as a candidate was he had weakening support among African American voters. And then Trump has actually done fairly well, particularly in some other states, like in Florida, with Latino voters,” Mallinson said, adding that Harris’ nomination changes the equation somewhat.

After Democrats seemingly all but wrote off Arizona for Biden, the contest there is proving more winnable for Harris. Biden narrowly won Arizona in 2020, but he had been hemorrhaging Latino support this year.

In the manufacturing-heavy upper Midwest, labor unions could prove consequential in not only persuading voters but also motivating them to the polls.

Biden was the first sitting president to visit a picket line when the United Auto Workers last year took on the “Big Three” Detroit automakers — Ford, General Motors and Stellantis — by going on strike. That effort led to significant increases in pay and benefits for workers.

The UAW, which in August announced a national campaign to motivate its 1 million active and retired members to vote for Harris, says its membership accounted for 9.2% of Biden’s 2020 votes in Michigan alone.

“To me, this election is real simple,” UAW president Shawn Fain told a crowd of about 15,000 people last month at a rally in Detroit for Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. “It’s about one question. It’s a question we made famous in the labor movement: Which side are you on?”

Political weaknesses

While Democrats are more motivated than when Biden was the presumptive nominee, they still face internal conflicts, the most high-profile of which has been about the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Dee Sull, a Las Vegas attorney who works in immigration and family law, is a registered Democrat who said she would never vote for Trump. Yet she doesn’t really want to vote for Harris, leaving her “very torn” this election.

“I believe our foreign policy in Gaza is completely ridiculous. I’m very disturbed,” she said of U.S. military aid to Israel. “If we’re going to spend money, I want it spent on my kids here — on my neighbors’ kids here.”

Sull said both parties have silenced the voices of those who protest the death and destruction in Gaza. And she was irritated that Palestinian American activists were not allowed to speak at the Democratic National Convention last month.

Sull won’t sit out the election, but said she would prefer to vote for a third candidate with a viable shot at winning.

“Probably like a lot of Americans would if they had that opportunity,” she said.

For Trump, voters’ overwhelming support for abortion rights could prove a huge liability in swing states.

While Trump has wobbled in recent months on whether he would veto a national abortion ban, the Supreme Court justices he appointed dismantled abortion access across the country in 2022 — an unpopular position even in red states such as Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio that since have voted to expand abortion rights.

In Wisconsin, Planned Parenthood stopped offering abortions at its health clinics after the court’s Dobbs decision because of an 1849 “trigger” state law that immediately took effect.

Wisconsin women lost all abortion services there for a year and a half, until a court re-interpreted the state law.

This summer’s shakeup has reset the race, said Amy Walter, publisher of The Cook Political Report, an independent, nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes elections. So far, likely voters in the swing states view Harris more favorably than Biden, she said. But with Trump benefiting from an electorate skeptical of the state of the economy, the newsletter characterized the race as “a battle of inches.”

The campaigns both face a lot of voters who are disenchanted with politics altogether, or else unhappy with their options.

Amy Tarkanian, a conservative television commentator who once lauded Trump to national audiences and was chair of the Nevada State Republican Party in 2011-12, said she’s at “a complete loss” this year. She remains a Republican, even after the state party heavily criticized her when, two years ago, she endorsed a pair of Democratic candidates for state offices.

“I’m not happy, or necessarily sold on Kamala,” Tarkanian said. “… But I absolutely do not want to vote for Donald Trump.”

Arizona Mirror’s Jim Small, Michigan Advance’s Anna Liz Nichols and Jon King, Nevada Current’s Hugh Jackson, NC Newsline’s Galen Bacharier, Pennsylvania Capital-Star’s Peter Hall and John Cole, Georgia Recorder’s Ross Williams, and Wisconsin Examiner’s Ruth Conniff and Henry Redman contributed reporting.

The presidential race gets the hype, but the nearly 6,000 state legislative races across the country in November’s elections could reshape power dynamics in some states.

While Republicans are primed to maintain their national advantage in statehouse control, several legislative chambers could flip, said Ben Williams, associate director of elections and redistricting at the National Conference of State Legislatures.

The GOP currently controls 57 legislative chambers, while Democrats control 41 (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is nonpartisan). But, with narrow majorities in some chambers, Williams is eyeing several where a different party could take over. And divided government in more legislatures could result in more moderate policymaking on a host of controversial issues.

Only one state — Pennsylvania — currently has a split legislature.

“If you are at a historic low for divided government nationwide, it’s a generally pretty safe bet to assume it’s going to go up,” Williams said. He laid out his predictions for the fall elections at the organization’s annual summit earlier this month.

He pointed to 10 competitive chambers to watch: the Arizona House, Arizona Senate, Michigan House, Minnesota House, New Hampshire House, New Hampshire Senate, Pennsylvania House, Pennsylvania Senate, Wisconsin House and the Wisconsin Senate.

Only three governor’s races — in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Washington — are characterized as competitive by the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes state and federal races.

Voter concerns

Nationally, the issues of inflation, abortion, immigration and foreign policy are at the forefront for voters, Williams said. But voters often have different concerns in state elections.

“Just because you see these national trends does not mean that that always reflects down to the state level,” he said. “There are local dynamics that are always at play that can make a difference.”

Republicans and Democrats are working to break apart trifectas (when a single party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governor’s office) or veto-proof majorities in several states.

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That’s true in Kansas, where Republicans hold veto-proof majorities in both chambers.

In the state Senate, Democrats would need to flip three seats to break the supermajority of Republicans, who currently holds 29 of the chamber’s 40 seats. Erasing a veto-proof majority would give more policymaking influence to Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, said state Sen. Dinah Sykes, the state Senate minority leader.

If Democrats weren’t facing veto-proof majorities, Sykes said the state’s recent $2 billion tax cut probably would have been more favorable to low-income earners. And breaking supermajorities would give the governor a better shot at getting a vote on Medicaid expansion — a long-standing Democratic priority. Kansas is among the 10 states not to have expanded the safety net program.

“I don’t think by any means it’s going to be super-progressive, but I think we can get kind of more middle of the road, which is what Kansans actually like,” she said.

Divided government

For Republicans, winning one or both chambers in Maine would force more compromise from Democrats, said state Rep. Billy Bob Faulkingham, a Republican and the House minority leader.

With a trifecta, Maine Democrats have been able to circumvent GOP lawmakers, Faulkingham said.

Last year, Democrats passed a two-year, nearly $10 billion budget in a legislative maneuver that one Republican described as the “tyranny of the majority.” The move allowed Democrats to pass the budget with a simple majority — rather than the two-thirds majority that is usually required.

Faulkingham said gaining control of even one chamber will result in more moderate policymaking.

“I think that all of a sudden, you would see people actually come to the table and negotiate, which you haven’t seen for the last six years,” he said. “If people are being honest, probably the best form of government is a divided government.”

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If the elections turn out to be a red wave, with Republicans making significant gains across the board, NCSL expects the Democratic-controlled House and Senate chambers in Delaware, Maine, Nevada and Oregon to be in play.

Conversely, if Democrats do well nationally, the GOP-controlled chambers in Alaska and Georgia could be competitive.

“These states are not as red as some might believe,” Williams told Stateline in an interview. “In Alaska’s House, the Republicans have a bare majority in each chamber. And in Georgia, Democrats only need to flip around 10 seats. So, it’s not an insurmountable task.”

The Alaska legislature is governed by bipartisan majority coalitions, even though voters send more Republicans to Juneau.

State Sen. Gary Stevens, a Republican who leads the Senate majority, said he doesn’t expect November’s election results to disrupt the majority coalition, even if Democrats or more conservative Republicans pick up seats.

Alaska has the nation’s smallest state Senate, with 20 members. The 17-member Senate majority currently shares power between parties and is largely focused on more moderate issues, Stevens said.

“It means we can’t deal with extreme issues — either far left or far right,” he said. “It simply means that we need to concentrate on those things in the middle that need to be done.”

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After years of planning, Minnesota Democrats seized the trifecta in 2022, when they flipped the Senate and maintained control of the House and governorship.

Since then, the legislature has approved bills that guarantee the right to abortion, provide free meals for kids at school, restore voting rights to felons released from prison and make the state a “trans refuge” for children seeking gender-affirming care. Those were all signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz, who is now Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate in the presidential election.

Those were hard-won progressive achievements, Democratic state Rep. Leigh Finke said. With only a one-seat advantage in the Senate, policy negotiations were fierce, as the majority worked to get all of their fellow Democrats on board.

“It may seem frustrating at times, but I think it really made our policy better because we knew we were going to have to fight for it,” she said.

Stateline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org. Follow Stateline on Facebook and X.