Data guru flags 'good news for Democrats' despite redistricting losses

Democratic chances for taking back the House majority took a major hit in recent weeks, but CNN's Harry Enten found reasons for optimism.

The U.S. Supreme Court ushered in a new era of gerrymandering last month by ruling that it was illegal for Louisiana legislators to create a new majority-Black Congressional district, and Virginia's Supreme Court last week struck down a voter-approved redistricting measure that likely would have favored Democrats, but Enten told "CNN News Central" that all was not lost for the party.

"Is it a redistricting nightmarefor Democrats?" Enten said. "No, but it's abad dream that has becomereality, and why is that?Because just take a look at thechance that Democrats have totake back the House. Accordingto the Kalshi Prediction Markets, you know, the eveningthat that Virginia redistrictingamendment passed, they had an86 percent chance of taking back the House, [but]that has fallen significantly,but it is still a majoritychance. Look, it's about athree-in-four shot, 76 percent.Sometimes when I look at it 75,74, but 76 percent."

"But either way youlook at it, the chance that Democrats take back the housecome November, it is very muchdown," he added. "They still have themajority chance to take it back, but you know what? Three-in-four thingsare not guarantees."

Redistricting complicates Democrats' path back to the majority because it requires them to win by larger margins to have a chance, Enten said.

"Let's let's take a look at thenational House vote margin," Enten said. "Under thecurrent lines, you know, theones that were fought under in the 2024 election cycle, forexample, they needed to win thenational House vote by less thana point. They basically justneeded to win the national Housevote and they'd win a majority.But look where it is now withredistricting. Now they have towin the national House vote bysomewhere between three and fourpoints, based, of course, uponwhat the rest of theredistricting cycle looks like.But either way, you crack thisnut. What you're essentiallylooking at is Democrats have toclimb a higher hill, have to gohigher up on the ladder in orderto take back the House versuswhere they were, let's just say,a few weeks ago."

"But here's the good newsfor Democrats," Enten added. "The good news for Democrats is look at theircurrent lead, their current leadin the national House vote pollsis six points. You don't have tobe a mathematical genius to knowthat six points is higher than threeto four. Of course, this is notthat big of a difference, right, and you would rather, if youwere Democrats, have it to bezero, essentially, and thenyou'd have a really big marginhere. But the bottom line isthis: Their lead right now in thenational House vote polls ishigher than the margin that isnecessary in order to take backthe U.S. House of Representatives even withredistricting."

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