'Ginormous blowout' within reach for Democrats if polling trends holds firm: data expert

CNN's Harry Enten analyzed the range of outcomes likely in November's midterm elections, and he found that massive gain were within reach for the Democratic Party.

The political landscape was convulsed by the mid-decade redistricting war kicked off by President Donald Trump in Texas, and last month's Supreme Court ruling on Louisiana's congressional map set off another mad dash of partisan gerrymandering, so Enten tried to determine the possible outcomes based on this new reality.

"I'mgoing to put on my professor caphere," Enten said. "I think that,you know, sometimes we sort ofget lost, right, we focus in onone poll and one narrative, andsometimes there are competingnarratives, and I think it'sworth just taking a step backbecause I think some people arelike, well, the polls showed onething and another thing happened."

Enten examined five polls showing Democrats with a lead in voters' choice for Congress, but they led by 3 percent in one poll, 5 percent in two polls and 10 percent in two others.

"There's quite this bit ofvariance that is going on righthere, and you know what?" Enten said. "This isactually a good thing. This is anormal thing, this is whathappens when you have margins oferror that are going out there.You'd expect an average, butthen you have a range ofpossible results around thataverage, and we're notnecessarily sure which one isright if the election were heldtoday, and, of course, there'sthe extra variance of the factthat the election is not beingheld until November."

Enten drilled in further to try and predict how many seats Democrats could gain if those polling leads held firm.

"What's thedifference between, let's say, Democrats winning by 100 versuswinning by three, and this iswhere it gets reallyinteresting," he said. "Okay, so even ifyou take redistricting intoaccount, given a popular votewin of, let's say, threepoints, what would that mean for Democratic House gains? Theygain probably somewhere inestimate is between zero and sixseats, which at the upper end ofthat range would be enough totake back the House. But on thelower end of that range, thatwould not be, that would be Republicans holding on."

"But whatabout that 10-point lead thatyou see in Marist, the New York Times?" Enten added. "Well, that would be aginormous blowout, and this isjust an estimate. It could behigher, a little bit higher, alittle bit lower. But we'retalking about an estimate of a Democratic gain of between 20 to30 seats or more. They could be ending up 245 seats or north ofthere potentially, versus beingstuck, let's say 213, 214,215 to 216, maybe barelygetting to a majority. So look,when you see this range ofpotential results, I want you tokeep in mind, yes, Democrats areprobably favored to take backthe House. It's by no means aguarantee, but they could end upblowing the Republicans rightout of the water. All of that iswithin the margin of error atthis point, especially giventhat months from the election."

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