The biggest case against 8 top Trump V.P. contenders: analysis

Some have publicly clashed with him, others won't likely move the needle for him, and one is downright dull.

The Washington Post on Friday outlined what analyst Aaron Blake said were the pros and cons for each betting favorite to become former President Donald Trump's running mate in the 2024 general election. The list featured four senators, a pair of congress members and one governor, who Blake called "the most compelling sleeper pick," and who happens to be the betting favorite.

Trump is expected to decide on a vice president candidate in about a month to replace former running mate Mike Pence, and Trump has reportedly sought documents from at least eight potential candidates.

The Post list looked at the cases for — and, perhaps more intriguingly, against — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and former Housing and Urban Development secretary Ben Carson.

Here's what the analysis found.

Marco Rubio

Rubio and Trump don't have the coziest history, trading more than a few barbs during the 2016 Republican primary campaign. (Among them: Trump has "small hands" and a "spray tan.")

"Imagine Democrats running ads featuring Trump’s running mate calling Trump a “con artist," Blake wrote in the case against Rubio, adding that one of the two would also have to establish residency outside Florida, as two candidates from the same state can't both win the state's electoral votes.

J.D. Vance

Trump likens himself to a winner, and it's not clear Vance can help improve his odds to beat President Joe Biden.

"Despite winning his Senate seat in 2022, voters were far from enamored of him," Blake said. "He underperformed Trump’s margins in that state, and he way underperformed the other statewide Republicans who were on the ballot with him."

Tom Cotton

Cotton is even more "hawkish" than Trump, Blake said, and the Arkansas Republican once told Trump it's "past time" to accept the results of the 2020 election and to "quit misleading the American people."

If election denialism is once again part of the Trump campaign's 2024 strategy — and he recently left the door open to do just that — Cotton's past remarks could come back around.

"It’s tough to see how Trump looks past the Jan. 6 stuff, given how central that is to him," Blake wrote.

Tim Scott

Scott, who became the first elected Black senator from the South since the Reconstruction, represents the "biggest do-no-harm pick," Blake wrote. The potential downside: Scott felt small on the stage as a 2024 candidate, and Trump may value a greater presence.

Doug Burgum

Burgum — the odds-on favorite Friday, if odds site oddschecker.com is to be believed — is both the "most compelling sleeper pick" and "surely the most boring and unremarkable candidate on this list," Blake said.

The wealthy businessman is generally known for being pragmatic and business-oriented.

"It’s pretty much the opposite of an exciting pick, and Trump is someone who values stage presence and charisma (as long as he doesn’t get upstaged)," he wrote.

Elise Stefanik

Stefanik, of New York, is known for her rapid rise in the GOP and her role as the House Republican Conference Chair. But her recent shift from moderate to MAGA could give the former president pause.

"You have to wonder whether Trump might worry that she could turn out to be another Pence," Blake wrote.

Byron Donalds

Donalds — who on Friday doubled down on comments he made suggesting that Black Americans were better off during the era of Jim Crow laws— is the least experienced candidate on the list, and also lives in Florida, leaving him with the same residency conundrum as Rubio.

"He also has past legal problems from when he was a young adult, including a drug-possession charge and a bribery charge," Blake said on Friday.

Ben Carson

And finally, there's one-time Trump opponent and former Housing and Urban Development secretary Ben Carson, who despite being out of the limelight for years, emerged as a potential running mate. But like Burgum, Carson isn't the most exciting of picks — "his sleepy style isn’t really in line with Trump and might not play as well on a bigger national stage," Blake noted.