'The answer is no': Historical data said to show Trump unlikely to recover from major fall
President Donald Trump has tumbled through the floor of his approval rating, according to CNN's Harry Enten, and history provides some painful lessons for him and fellow Republicans.
The latest polling finds the 79-year-old president well below 40 percent, which Enten told "CNN News Central" was a perilous position for the Republican Party looking ahead to November's midterm elections.
"There's been all this talkabout Donald Trump has thisfloor," Enten said. "Well, I'll tell you,that floor looks like it wasbuilt by the worst carpentersI've ever seen, because he justkeeps falling through thatfloor, and it's not just the New York Times [poll]. This is what I thinkis so important. Yes, the Timespoll got people talking, but it just follows a slew of pollingdata that all shows the samething, and that is that Donald Trump is not just under 40 percent.He's well under 40 percent in terms ofhis approval rating, 37 percent. New York Times, CBS came out on Sunday, 37 percent, Ipsos, 36 percent, our CNNpoll, 35 percent."
"You put it alltogether and it is just veryclear at this point that Donald Trump is hitting new lows in hispolling data," he added, "and this one pollis no outlier – it is part of amuch larger trend."
Enten found only two other examples of presidents who fell below 40-percent approval at this point in their second term, and he said they provide cautionary tales.
"One was Richard Nixon back in 1974, [and] his party absolutely gotcrushed in the 1974 midtermelections, suffered huge losses,House and Senate," Enten said. "How about George W. Bush back in 2006, hisparty lost the House, his partylost the Senate again, 30-seatloss in the House for George W. Bush in 2006, a six-seat loss inthe United States Senate."
"Sohistorically speaking, ofcourse, we'll have to just waitand see what happens here," he added. "Buthistorically speaking, when you have apresident who has a sub-40approval rating at this point,their party goes down to defeatin the midterm elections."
History also shows that presidents who fall as low as Trump has don't usually recover, Enten said.
"The answer is no," he said. "Nixon, of course, was outby August of '74. He ended upwith, what, a 24 percent approvalrating, and George W. Bush. Youknow what happened to him by theend of his term in 2009, he wasactually in the high 20s. Hewasn't just sub-40, he was inthe 20s. Both Bush and Nixonended up in the 20s in approvalrating."
"Again, I'm not sayingthat's going to happen with Donald Trump," Enten added. "This is a samplesize of two, but this is historythat you definitely don't wantto be a part of. You do not wantto be part of this brotherhood."
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