CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten examined fresh polling that showed the record-long government shutdown significantly weakened President Donald Trump's political position and lessened the Republican Party's chances of maintaining their congressional majorities.
The 43-day shutdown ended nearly two weeks ago, but Enten said the damage has already been done to the GOP's standing less than a year before the 2026 midterm elections.
"I always have thoughts, [and] on this particular Tuesday morning, I have thoughts 13 days after the shutdown ended," Enten said. "I think it's pretty clear, at least from a political angle, that Democrats won the shutdown. Why do I say that? Well, first, let's take a look at Donald Trump's net approval rating. It's way down from where it was pre-shutdown, right? Pre-shutdown his net approval rating was at minus-10 points, now it's at minus-15 points – the lowest his net approval rating has been during his entire second term in office."
"So the shutdown, it might have initially been helping Donald Trump out a little bit, or at least his ratings weren't falling," Enten added, "but now his ratings have sunk to a term-two low."
Even worse for Republicans is that Democrats expanded their lead among likely voters since the shutdown ended, Enten said.
"You know, a lot of times we look at, okay, what's congressional Democrats' approval rating?" Enten said. "I think that's the wrong way to look at it, because what Democrats want is they want to get back into power, and the way they're going to get back into power is by winning the 2026 midterm elections, unless, of course, there are so many House Republicans who resign over the course of the next year, although that's not likely to happen.
"But take a look at the generic congressional ballot pre-shutdown: They were ahead by three points. Where are they now? They're ahead by five points. Their lead has widened, it has extended, when you look at those who are absolutely certain to vote that is likely voters. We saw that in the Marquette University Law School poll last week, this five-point lead went to nine points."
"So the Democratic lead on the generic ballot has widened, Donald Trump's political position has worsened. I don't see how you can look at both of those angles and conclude anything other than Democrats, at least from a political point of view, won this shutdown."