Threats against GOP lawmakers skyrocketed during Trump's presidency: analysis

Threats to elected officials and other government workers have skyrocketed since Donald Trump entered politics, and the Republican 2024 frontrunner's wide-ranging legal problems have sparked new threats.

CNN reviewed more than 540 cases involving individuals charged with making threats against public officials or institutions between January 2013 and November 2023, which researchers at the University of Nebraska found resulted in a nearly 80-percent conviction rate, but many experts believe those cases aren't prosecuted often enough due to First Amendment concerns and a lack of resources at the Department of Justice.

“It’s incredibly difficult, and I do not envy the DOJ’s position,” said Katherine Keneally, head of threat analysis and prevention at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

Between 2013 and the start of 2017, Barack Obama was the target of all prosecuted threats of named public officials, while threats against the president fell to 24 percent when Donald Trump was in office, and those dropped to 19 percent so far under President Joe Biden.

However, after Trump took office threats to officials from both parties jumped sharply.

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Republicans were almost never singled out during Obama's second term, but they were targeted more often than Democrats – by a 43-35 margin – during Trump's presidency, but the number of Democrats threatened during Obama's term – 16 – more than doubled under Trump.

“Any time a member of Congress is in the news, whether it’s good or bad or just neutral … you will see a spike in threats to that individual member,” said U.S. Capitol police chief Thomas Manger. “It just gets people to notice.”

Biden has been the target of most threats against Democrats during his presidency, although he's on pace to get significantly fewer than either of his predecessors, and Republicans and Democrats have been targeted almost evenly during the combined Trump and Biden years, with 82 threats aimed at individual Republican officials and 80 threats against named Democrats that eventually led to federal charges.

Violent threats peaked in 2021, with more than 9,600 direct threats and “concerning statements” aimed at individual lawmakers, according to Capitol police, and more than 4,500 against judges, attorneys, jurors, and others who are protected by the U.S. Marshals Service.

However, just 72 threats against public servants or institutions that year resulted in federal charges, and of those about half were driven by ideological or political issues.