President Donald Trump's growing trade war with Canada could hit Michigan's economy just weeks before voters there decide one of the country's most closely watched Senate races, an economic analyst warned.
David Clement, policy director at the free-market Consumer Choice Center, told Fox News Digital that Michigan's auto industry is especially vulnerable because it depends on a supply chain that crosses the border with Canada.
Michigan exported about $21.2 billion in goods to Canada in 2025, roughly 36 percent of its total exports, according to the Michigan Department of Transportation. Most of those exports were vehicles and parts.
"How you see this as a Michigan consumer is higher prices on the dealership lot," Clement said. He described the combination of tariffs and already-high living costs as a "double whammy" for residents.
Trump slapped an extra 50 percent tariff on certain Canadian goods earlier this year. His administration has also barred some Canadian products from entering the U.S. since Sept. 29. Trade talks between the two countries have collapsed, and both sides have imposed new measures targeting each other's goods.
Clement said Michigan ranks about seventh among states in exposure to the dispute, with equipment, machinery and auto manufacturing among the sectors most at risk.
The problem is made worse by how often auto parts move back and forth across the border during production.
"Most Americans don't know that a single component on a U.S.-assembled vehicle can cross the border upwards of eight times before it's actually completed," Clement said.
Each crossing can trigger new costs, he explained. He warned that tariffs and retaliation can "really gum up the very intertwined supply chain for cars between Michigan and Ontario."
The economic fallout comes as Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers compete for the seat left open by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Polls show the race is tight.
The Trump administration has defended its trade moves as necessary to protect American workers and businesses and to level the playing field with Canada.
But Clement argued the strategy may be hurting the president's party at the worst possible time.
"It would appear that Donald Trump's original escalation against Canada has somewhat backfired in terms of the midterms," he said.
He added that companies relying on Canadian materials will soon start feeling the effects.
"American manufacturers or American businesses who rely on Canadian inputs are going to start to feel the pain right in the lead-up to going to the ballot box," Clement said. "Cost of living, cost of goods, cost of doing business is such an important factor for Americans who are going to be casting a ballot."