Trump's new scheme has two outcomes — and both threaten disaster: expert

The Trump administration’s new plan to financially squeeze Iran and force it back to the negotiating table is dangerously short-sighted, sanctions expert Brett Erickson warned Monday, and ultimately has only two outcomes — both of which carry severe risks.

Revealed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday, the Trump administration's new plan to force Iran into submission has been called an “economic D-Day,” and would see severe secondary sanctions imposed on any nation or entity providing Iran with financial assistance. However, Trump administration officials have yet to explain how they plan on executing such a plan without sparking a new trade war among the United States’ largest trading partners.

In 2025 alone, trade between the United States and China totaled more than $494 billion, a figure notably more than 25% less than the previous year. China also happens to be one of Iran’s largest trading partners, being their single largest buyer of oil over the past several years, according to Reuters.

Speaking to Al Jazeera for its report Monday, Erickson argued that for the Trump administration to execute its plan, it would have to either sever ties with China in a manner that could spark a “prolonged period” of potential economic hardship, or exclude China from its secondary tariffs, which itself would be a “tacit admission” that the plan was ineffective.

“That is not a relationship you degrade lightly. If the United States decides to really bring China into the ring, it will be a serious indication that the United States plans to wage this economic war for a prolonged period of time,” Erickson told the outlet.

“If they do not, it will be a tacit admission from the Trump administration that they do not believe economic hardship can seriously bring about a change in the Iranian position.”

Erickson was far from the only critic of the Trump administration’s new plan, which has yet to be revealed in full. Political scientist Robert Pape also warned Monday that not only was the plan doomed to fail, but that it would likely backfire spectacularly, and potentially “shut down critical shipping lanes and spike oil prices overnight.”