A storm system is shaping up to move through the central United States on Election Day, and it could influence turnout in some of the region’s competitive races, CNN Weather reported on Thursday.
Meteorologist Chris Dolce says forecasters are increasingly confident in widespread rain Tuesday from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest down to the western Gulf Coast. Who gets hit hardest remains unclear, and more should be known by the weekend. For now, parts of Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Texas, and possibly Ohio, could end up wet.
The Midwest and Plains could also see strong winds, with severe storms and heavy downpours possible from Texas toward the lower Mississippi Valley.
Dolce points out that more than 39 million people have voted early, so the forecast matters mainly for those still planning to vote Tuesday. Studies have repeatedly found that rain and unsettled weather tend to lower turnout while sunny weather raises it.
For key states, CNN says Georgia, Maine, New Hampshire and North Carolina should likely stay dry. Michigan may get showers at some point, but timing is uncertain. Rain looks more probable in Iowa than earlier models suggested, and Kansas should see rain in parts of the state.
In Texas, the chance is highest in the east, especially along and east of Interstate 35, with a threat of severe storms; this is the most populated part of the state and is home to a number of Republican strongholds where Election Day turnout is more important. Most models keep Ohio dry, though that isn’t certain.
CNN noted the forecast will likely change as the storm’s track becomes clearer.