Harris and Trump have equal favorability in NC — but Robinson faces a wider margin: poll

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump enjoy nearly equal favorability ratings among North Carolina’s registered voters, according to an Elon Poll released Tuesday.

About 44% of voters had very favorable or somewhat favorable impressions of Harris, and 46% had very favorable or somewhat favorable impressions of Trump. Each was viewed unfavorably by half the voters.

In the governor’s race, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson favorability lagged far behind that of Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein. Robinson was viewed favorably by 30% and unfavorably by half the voters. Stein was viewed favorably by 44% of voters and unfavorably by 29%.

More Republicans than Democrats said they would split their votes for president and governor. Sixteen percent of Republicans said they would split their tickets, while 6% of Democrats said they would select candidates of different parties.

This is the first Elon Poll of the 2024 election year. The poll was conducted from Aug. 2-9, after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race but before the Democratic National Convention.

North Carolina’s status as a swing state is sometimes questioned, considering Republican presidential candidates have won three times in a row, Professor Jason Husser, Elon University Poll director, said in a news release.

“Our data show that North Carolina’s electoral votes remain up for grabs by either party, but winning those votes will involve navigating a divided, complex and engaged electorate,” Husser said.

More than half of the respondents said the events of the summer, including the assassination attempt on Trump and Biden’s decision to drop out, made them more interested in voting.

The poll reveals racial and gender divides in both the presidential and gubernatorial races.

Half of male voters had favorable impressions of Trump, while 39% of male voters had favorable impressions of Harris.

Among women, 47% had favorable impressions of Harris, while 43% viewed Trump favorably.

Seventy-two percent of Black voters had favorable impressions of Harris, while 17% had favorable impressions of Trump.

Fifty-four percent of white voters had favorable impressions of Trump, while 35% of white voters said the same of Harris.

Stein’s favorability far outpaces Robinson’s with women and Black voters. Twenty-three percent of women have favorable impressions of Robinson, while 46% have favorable impressions of Stein.

Favorable views among men are about the same for each candidate: 40% for Robinson and 41% for Stein.

Robinson is the state’s first Black lieutenant governor. In his speech at the Republican National Convention, he talked about becoming the state’s first Black governor. Most Black voters, however, view him unfavorably.

Sixty-four percent of Black voters had unfavorable impressions of Robinson, while 14% had favorable impressions.

Sixty-five percent of Black voters had favorable impressions of Stein, while 5% viewed him unfavorably.

The state’s economy emerged as the top issue influencing voters’ choice for governor. Ninety percent said it was extremely or very important.

Democrats and Republicans reported vastly different experiences with their personal finances over the last three years.

Forty percent of Democrats said their personal financial situations had improved since Biden took office, while 17% said they had gotten worse.

For Republicans, 3% said their personal financial situations had improved since Biden took office, and 80% said they had gotten worse.

Elon University Poll sponsored the survey and the firm YouGov conducted it. The poll had a sample size of 800 and a 3.86% margin of error.

NC Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. NC Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Rob Schofield for questions: info@ncnewsline.com. Follow NC Newsline on Facebook and X.