Here’s why the filibuster will be on the ballot in the 2022 midterms

The filibuster will essentially be on the ballot during the 2022 midterm elections, according to a new analysis by The Washington Post.

"In many ways, the current Democratic Party debate over the filibuster is an academic one. The party has only 50 votes in the Senate, and two of those 50 senators have made clear they won't eliminate it. It seems no amount of pressure in the world will move Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-WV) off that position," Aaron Blake wrote. "But that doesn't mean the debate doesn't matter — or that this issue couldn't soon come into starker relief. And that's because, increasingly, the filibuster is very much on the ballot in 2022."

"Democrats have basically five good pickup opportunities in the Senate right now: in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And in all five, their top contenders have now made clear their opposition to the filibuster will be a feature of their campaigns," Blake explained.

Blake cited the campaign of Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, who is running for the open seat in Ohio created by the retirement of Sen. Rob Portman . He also cited Rep. Val Demmings, who is challenging Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida; Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who are running the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey.

In Wisconsin, both Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson are running against the filibuster in their bids for the seat currently held by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-OH).

And in North Carolina, former state Sen. Erica Smith supports abolishing the filibuster while state Sen. Jeff Jackson is a "filibuster-skeptical" and former state Supreme Court justice Cheri Beasley will "take a look at" end the filibuster.

"The combined picture is one of Democrats with electoral skin in the game — and perhaps without the trials and tribulations that come with serving in the Senate — deciding almost in unison that this is an issue to focus upon," Blake wrote.

"The larger significance, though, might lie in what happens come 2023. If history is any guide, Democrats face an uphill battle when it comes to keeping their majority, much less adding seats. But the map is favorable, with the Cook Political Report listing the only two 'toss-ups' as seats Republicans are defending. And to the extent Democrats can expand their majority, they would be in all likelihood be adding anti-filibuster votes. In other words, Sinema and Manchin might not be the swing votes on this issue forever, or even in just a year and a half," he noted.