Georgia U.S. Senate race headed for a Dec. 6 runoff

Georgia’s U.S. Senate race appears to be headed into a runoff as neither incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock or Republican challenger Herschel Walker are projected to exceed 50% of the vote.

By late Wednesday morning, Warnock held 49.34% of the vote to Walker’s 48.6% according to unofficial results, a difference of just under 29,000 votes out of the nearly 3.9 million counted long after the election watch parties disbanded. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver had about 80,000 votes, or just over 2%.

In a late night tweet, Georgia Secretary of State’s Chief Operating Officer Gabriel Sterling said it does not appear either candidate will win outright.

“While county officials are still doing the detailed work on counting the votes, we feel it is safe to say there will be a runoff for the US Senate here in Georgia slated for December 6,” he said.

At parties lasting into the wee hours, both campaigns expressed confidence in their chances.

“Herschel is ahead right now, and we feel very good about where we are,” said Ralph Reed, chairman of the conservative Faith and Freedom Coalition shortly after midnight. “We have a path, but we’re unlikely to have this result tonight.”

Reed told the crowd that the ballroom at the Omni Hotel in the Battery next to the Atlanta Braves ballpark the space was only rented until 12:45, and the crowd dispersed, disappointed but hopeful.

Warnock’s party continued until nearly 2 a.m., when the senator addressed the crowd of sleepy journalists and supporters.

“We’re not sure if this journey is over tonight, or if there’s still a little work yet to do, but here’s what we do know. We know that when they’re finished counting the votes from today’s election, that we’re going to have received more votes than my opponent,” he said.

A runoff race wouldn’t be a first for Warnock, who took office in 2021 following a tight overtime victory against Republican Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp after Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson retired due to failing health. But that victory only earned him the right to serve the short remainder of Isakson’s six-year term.

Warnock and fellow Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff helped hand their party control of the U.S. Senate in that election, and again, the outcome of this race could help decide which party controls the chamber.

As of Wednesday morning, Democratic Senator-elect John Fetterman gave his party a fighting chance to preserve his party’s agenda by flipping a Republican-controlled seat in Pennsylvania, but key races in Nevada and Arizona remain too close to call as of late Wednesday morning.

What happens in those states will determine the stakes, but the fight is likely to be fierce even if Warnock is not the kingmaker once more.

“Even if that’s the case, I think that both Democrats and Republicans will be very interested in contending for the seat,” said Emory University political science professor Andra Gillespie. “So I still expect that there will be tons of resources that are pouring into the state and I’m expecting it to be a pretty intense, sometimes acrimonious fight. I don’t expect either party to roll over and not give everything they have in terms of mobilization, in terms of trying to get their base out to vote again.”

Both candidates would have preferred not to spend their Thanksgiving weeks stumping for voters whose holiday plans likely did not include a trip to the polls or taking a turn texting or knocking doors for a candidate.

Runoffs in Georgia usually see fewer participants than general elections, and Democrats tend to lose more voters than Republicans, though Warnock’s last win proved an exception to that rule.

Party identification is strongly correlated with race in Georgia, and a GPB News analysis found precincts won by former Republican President Donald Trump in 2020 saw a 9% drop in turnout among white voters during the runoff, but only a 6.7% drop among Black voters. In districts won by President Biden, white turnout dropped by about 7%, and Black turnout only fell 6.4%.

“This could be counterstereotypical in the same way that the 2021 election cycle was, where you see people turning out at a much higher rate than you would expect for a runoff,” Gillespie said. “I expect that that’s going to happen, just given how close it is and what the stakes are. But I think that there are lots of lessons to be learned from that runoff and about Georgia’s continued competitiveness, despite the fact that other Democrats lost down ballot that I think are going to make this — clearly, because all the other races will have been decided — the most important election in the country.”

Warnock’s challenge this time around will be to keep his base fired up without Trump’s unintended assistance. The former president has been credited for inadvertently aiding Warnock and Ossoff by falsely claiming that Republican votes were not counted.

“I don’t expect Donald Trump to come to the state the day before the election and tell people their votes won’t count, thus depressing turnout, so I think Democrats need to be prepared for that,” Gillespie said.

“They also can’t register new voters to participate in the runoff who perhaps didn’t vote in the general election, even though they can go to voters who maybe skipped this election and try to get them out to vote. And given the margin that we see in these candidates, it’s possible for both sides to go try to reach out to voters, but in many instances, runoffs are kind of a war of attrition. We expect lower turnout. So it’s just a question of which side loses more support.”

Walker’s goal will be to convince skeptical Republicans who split their tickets to push him across the finish line.

Walker underperformed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who bested Democrat Stacey Abrams by a greater margin than in 2018 in part due to Kemp and Warnock’s incumbency, and in part due to Walker’s flaws. As of Wednesday morning, Walker had just over 200,000 fewer votes than Kemp.

Part of that discrepancy can be chalked up to incumbency — Kemp is a known quantity with a history of holding office, while Walker is a former star running back endorsed by Trump, his friend and one-time boss.

His campaign has been beset by negative stories, including accusations of domestic violence, parental neglect,lies about his resume and allegations that he paid for two ex-girlfriends to have an abortion in the past in spite of being a staunch abortion opponent. Walker has acknowledged a history of mental illness and said he has moved beyond his past.

Some Euharlee voters Tuesday said they believed Walker was sincere about overcoming his problems.

“He’s had some troubles in the past,” said retiree Michael Roberts. “But you know, we all have, I think he’s cleaned up his act from what has happened to him, you know, and I understand that it was early days of football, he had memory loss and things like that. So I think I think it’d be a good candidate.”

Others said they don’t believe the allegations.

“There’s been a lot of bad advertisement on TV about it, but the way I look at it, you know, if he had done all those things, he would be in jail, he wouldn’t be running,” said Susie Bohannon, a former lab technician who is now on disability. “That’s just ridiculous. But I liked him. I think he’s got a good attitude. And I think he deserves a shot to see what he can do for us.”

Others were less generous.

“I’m not familiar with Rev. Warnock or whatever, but I still voted for him over that crazy one,” said Euharlee voter Paul Wood.

Georgia Recorder is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Georgia Recorder maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor John McCosh for questions: info@georgiarecorder.com. Follow Georgia Recorder on Facebook and Twitter.