To win the Senate, Democrats need to flip at least two seats that President Donald Trump won by 11 points or more. No party has done that since 2008. But according to New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn, the party may have found a formula that works.
New Times/Siena polls released Saturday show Democrats ahead in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, tied in Kansas and down by just one point in Iowa. Trump won all five states by 11 to 16 points.
"Democrats are cooking with the same recipe across all five contests," Cohn wrote. "At a time when Mr. Trump is very unpopular, Democrats have nominated popular, relatively moderate candidates against surprisingly unpopular Republicans."
The first ingredient is Trump. In these five states, his approval is 40%, down five points since June. The second is the candidates. In every state, voters see the Democrat more favorably than unfavorably, and the Republican the other way around.
Cohn's analysis calls Texas a "perfect storm" for Republicans. There, Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by six points.
"Texas is the one where Republicans have contributed the finest ingredients" for Dems "cooking," Cohn wrote.
Several things are working against the GOP there at once. Trump's approval among likely voters in Texas is just 38%. Paxton is the least popular of the 10 Senate candidates tested. And Hispanic voters, who make up a large share of the state's electorate, are "swinging hard toward the Democrats," Cohn wrote.
Republicans are spending hundreds of millions of dollars against Talarico, but his candidacy "appears essentially undamaged." His favorable ratings have actually gone up since June. Only 40% of voters say he's "too far to the left," while 47% say Paxton is "too far to the right."
Cohn did offer Republicans one hopeful sign. The poll assumes many Hispanic and young Trump voters will stay home while new Democratic-leaning voters turn out. "If the 2024 electorate showed up, the race would be a dead heat," he wrote.
If the polls were exactly right, Cohn wrote, "Democrats would take the Senate with room to spare." He added right away that "they won't be."