Republican groups have put more than $740 million into congressional races since Labor Day, but according to CNBC, the money has done little to shift the battlefield.
AdImpact data shows GOP groups spent that sum from Labor Day through October 14, with at least $220 million from Trump-aligned organizations. Elon Musk, the biggest known donor of the cycle, has given another $276 million to Republican groups since July. Even so, Democrats still lead polling averages across the nine competitive Senate races CNBC tracked, much as they did before the surge.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse explained the limits. “Money is an amplifier, not a magic wand,” he said, noting that ad volume can’t change a hostile climate.
Cost is one reason. Much of the money arrives late through super PACs, which pay more per ad than candidates, who get the lowest rate in the final 60 days. In Dallas this month, Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico’s campaign spent about $2.4 million to reach viewers roughly 48 times, while Texas PAC, backing GOP rival Ken Paxton, spent about $7.8 million for roughly 81. In key Senate battlegrounds, Republicans out-spent Democrats by 26% through September but aired just 7% more ads.
Texas Sen. John Cornyn wrote on X that the Republican money edge is “not what it appears to be.”
Polling hasn’t budged much. After more than $113 million in attacks on Talarico, Siena shows him ahead of Paxton, 48% to 44%. In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed’s favorability rose despite roughly $87 million in attack ads. Some Republicans say the money prevented further slippage, with one operative saying it kept a flawed candidate “from becoming an unwinnable one.”
The money is also shifting. The Senate Leadership Fund has committed roughly $180 million to Texas, Kansas and Nebraska, states Trump won easily, while dropping most of its remaining North Carolina reservations. In the House, the Congressional Leadership Fund stopped spending for Reps. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and moved about $10 million to 16 other districts.