'Writing is on the wall' as demoralized GOP lawmakers expect to become minority: insider

The former chief aide to ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) contends that the GOP caucus under current Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is demoralized and angry as members head home for the holidays, facing the prospect of losing House control in 2026.

During an appearance on MS NOW's "Way Too Early" with host Ali Vitali, Brendan Buck noted that while internal fractures have existed within the Republican majority, conditions have deteriorated significantly under Johnson's leadership. The Speaker faces an escalating revolt from his own members.

Buck pointed to several instances where GOP House lawmakers joined with Democrats to pass discharge petitions against the Speaker's wishes. He expressed pessimism about improved conditions when lawmakers return after the holiday recess.

“I wonder if you think that it's overblown when you hear about, oh, Republicans are nervous about the midterms. They feel like the issues are getting away from them,” host Vitali prompted her guest. “The generic ballot looks difficult. Is it overblown? Is it spot on? How do you think about this?”

“It shouldn't be overblown," he replied. “I mean, I think one of the signs of that is the number of retirements you've already started to see — and I think you're going to see a lot usually when they go home for the holidays and come back, because when you see a lot of retirements, I would expect you're going to get a lot.”

“Some of it is just again, we're not doing a whole lot, but the writing is very much on the wall that you're going to be in the minority next year and that's not a very fun life,” he observed. “I think a lot of people are just sort of tired of having to deal with the whole [Donald] Trump circus as well. You're in Congress, you're not accomplishing much, you may be in the minority soon. You're constantly having to respond to whatever Donald Trump did — It's not a very fun existence.”

“I think that is another part of why you're seeing all these people sort of lashing out in a way that makes it very hard to govern,” he added.

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