Dread is spreading through the House Republican Conference as the midterms approach, according to a report on the mood inside the party flagged by Jake Sherman of Punchbowl News.
To put it simply, said Sherman in a post to X, "panic has set in" for the GOP ahead of next month's election.
Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH), a 13-year veteran, described the political climate as “certainly toxic for Republicans.” He said voters expected certain results after the 2024 election that haven’t arrived, and that lawmakers should level with their constituents instead of sugarcoating the situation.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), one of the more moderate members of the caucus who has defied the odds in previous Democratic wave elections, faces one of the toughest reelection fights in the country. He questioned why party leaders keep publicly suggesting this election might favor Republicans, given the pattern of midterm history.
“It’s an historical precedent that is rarely defied,” Fitzpatrick said of the majority party’s losses.
He noted that the second midterm of a presidency tends to be even tougher, and that the main example of breaking the pattern came after the 9/11 attacks. No similar circumstance exists today, he said.
The unease is most visible at the party committees and super PACs that direct hundreds of millions of dollars into House campaigns. Republicans from around the country, including many in safely red seats, are bringing those groups polls that show them behind or barely ahead. Democratic groups, by contrast, report a flood of data revealing chances in places they’d never targeted, with the field widening into increasingly Republican terrain.
Democrats, for their part, say they’ve seen polling within the margin of error in Indiana’s 5th District, held by Rep. Victoria Spartz, where Trump won by 17 points. Other close contests include the open seats in New York’s 21st, which he carried by 21, Nevada’s 2nd, by 14, and Kentucky’s 6th, by 15. They’re also seeing tighter-than-normal races in North Carolina’s 3rd, held by Rep. Greg Murphy, and the 9th, held by NRCC Chair Richard Hudson, as well as Nebraska’s 1st, held by Rep. Mike Flood.