'That's a big swing!' Analysts wowed as red-state survey forecasts disaster for GOP

A new Alaska poll co-conducted by President Trump's own pollster shows Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola leading Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by five points head-to-head, a stunning result in a state Trump carried by 13 points just two years ago.

Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who partnered with Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio on the AARP-commissioned survey, found Peltola ahead 46% to 41% before ranked-choice tabulation, expanding to a 53-47 lead once that process runs its course. Host Greg Sargent, discussing the numbers on The Daily Blast podcast, zeroed in on just how far Trump's own standing had collapsed in the state.

"He's now eight points underwater. That's a big swing," Sargent said, noting Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024 but now sits at 45 percent approval versus 53 percent disapproval.

Anzalone said the real story lies with independent voters, who've abandoned Republicans en masse. Peltola leads independents by 32 points, while Sullivan's favorability among that group sits underwater by 27 points. Anzalone attributed the collapse largely to unmet economic expectations, citing a squeeze on household budgets from every direction — pump prices hovering around $4.33 a gallon, diesel costs pushing past $6, and beef prices climbing toward the same mark — layered atop fallout from Trump's tariffs and the ongoing Iran war.

The Alaska numbers aren't isolated. Anzalone's separate Texas poll found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 48 percent to 44 percent, with Trump sitting 33 points underwater among Texas independents. Anzalone credited Talarico's strength partly to Paxton's baggage and partly to Talarico's appeal as a Christian candidate offering something different from typical partisan messaging, arguing GOP attacks focused on transgender issues have largely fallen flat given how squarely voters are focused on affordability instead.

Republican anxiety is bubbling into public view elsewhere too. The New York Times reported Republicans are quietly weighing whether to pull resources from Georgia's Senate race entirely, essentially signaling they see Jon Ossoff's win as increasingly likely. A Florida-based GOP pollster told Axios that Hispanic support is "evaporating" over economic frustration and aggressive immigration enforcement, and a Republican consultant reportedly responded to a HuffPost reporter's question about the polling with nothing but a poop emoji.

Anzalone said Republicans are being forced into damage control across the map, having already abandoned Georgia and now facing tough calls on whether to keep pouring money into North Carolina, all while treating Ohio's Senate race as what he called a "rescue mission" on behalf of embattled GOP efforts there.

Asked what could still derail Democrats' chances, Anzalone pointed to persistent doubts about the Democratic Party's own brand, the financial gap Republicans are likely to exploit down the stretch, and invisible late-stage GOP field operations, like the Elon Musk-backed turnout machine that surprised Democrats in Pennsylvania in 2024, that don't show up in public polling until it's too late.

Despite the uncertainty, Anzalone laid out what he sees as a plausible Democratic path to a Senate majority: wins in Maine and North Carolina, followed by Alaska, and, more surprisingly, Texas, where he argued Paxton's baggage may prove fatal even without Talarico needing an outright majority thanks to a Libertarian candidate on the ballot.