MSN
Four new polls just delivered Republicans their worst Senate nightmare
October 29, 2026 8:58AM ET
Maine Senate candidate Troy Jackson (image via campaign website).
CNN surveys in four Senate battlegrounds find Democrats ahead in Michigan and Texas and in close races in Kansas and Maine, showing how much the midterm landscape has moved, according to CNN.
Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, is at 49 percent against Republican Mike Rogers’ 42 percent. CNN says El-Sayed now has 95 percent of Democratic likely voters behind him following the August primary, while Rogers’ unfavorable rating climbed to 50 percent from 42 percent in early September.
Texas Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent. Talarico has 63 percent of Latino likely voters, and 22 percent of likely voters of color who say they backed Trump in 2024, CNN found. Paxton draws unfavorable views even from some Republicans.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is at 49 percent and Sen. Roger Marshall at 45 percent, a race CNN says has no clear leader, though voters there say they’d rather Republicans run the Senate. Most backers of Hamilton, 59%, say they’re mainly voting against Marshall. In Maine, Troy Jackson (49 percent) and Sen. Susan Collins (45 percent) are likewise too close to call, and 54 percent view Collins unfavorably.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats for control, and CNN says that outcome “remains far from a done deal.” In all but Maine, at least one in eight likely voters could still change their minds, and in Texas and Kansas, at least six in ten undecided voters lean Republican, which CNN says leaves room for the GOP to gain.
The polls ran Oct. 20 to 27 in Michigan and Texas and Oct. 20 to 26 in Kansas and Maine.
Republicans have broadly been complaining that President Donald Trump's interference in Senate contests has put their control of the chamber at greater risk.