Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) speaks to the press before walking into his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 23, 2026. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
Senate Democrats think they have a genuine shot at seizing control after November's midterms, having thrown a handful of reliably red states into play, and a nightmare scenario has filled senators in both parties with dread: a 50-50 tie.
If Democrats fall just short and Republicans cling to their majority, the expanded map now offers several paths to a deadlocked chamber — an outcome many senators are already gaming out while others "have yet to grasp," Punchbowl News reported.
In that case, the GOP would technically stay in charge, because the party holds the White House and Vice President JD Vance can break ties. But first, Senate Republican leaders would have to hammer out a power-sharing deal and get the full chamber to adopt it — a process Punchbowl warned "would be littered with landmines" for them.
They'd be staring down an emboldened Democratic Party ready to use every tool to throw a wrench in President Donald Trump's agenda and nominees, especially if Democrats also flip the House. Trump, who has already needled Majority Leader John Thune over the filibuster, would likely pressure him to hold firm.
The last 50-50 Senate, during the first two years of the Biden administration, required nearly a month of grinding talks between Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell to reach a power-sharing agreement. The chamber has only grown more partisan since, with the dealmaking middle hollowed out, shutdowns more frequent and Trump openly feuding with his own party's leaders.
A few swing votes would gain significant leverage. On the GOP side, that would include Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who has broken with Trump. The president torched her in his Punchbowl sit-down.
"I'm against Murkowski. I do more for Alaska than any president in history. No president's done for Alaska what I've done. She's not good," Trump said.
Sen. Susan Collins would join that club if she wins reelection. If she loses, Murkowski is poised to chair Appropriations. And Democrat John Fetterman, who sometimes sides with the GOP, would be another name to watch.