Republicans are facing a perfect storm heading into November's midterms, with new polling revealing that white voters — a demographic the party has relied upon for decades — are defecting in significant numbers and favoring Democratic control of Congress.
According to reporting from Newsweek, a Big Data Poll conducted April 25-28 shows Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot by an unprecedented 13 points — their largest advantage ever measured. The shift is being driven partly by collapsing Republican support among white voters.
The poll of 3,176 registered voters found Democrats leading 50.4 percent to 39.4 percent among likely voters. Among white voters specifically, Democrats captured 41.5 percent compared to 41.1 percent for Republicans, with 5.8 percent choosing third-party candidates and 11.6 percent undecided.
"Voters have clearly run out of patience with the administration and [the Republican] party," Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris told Newsweek who attributed the Democratic advantage to "voter enthusiasm, more interest in voting on behalf of Democrats, crossover voting and independent preference both favoring Democrats, and deep frustration with Republicans over their failure to enact domestic policies."
The erosion of white voter support represents a dramatic shift from decades of Republican dominance with this demographic. While white voters still comprise roughly 71 percent of the national electorate, their loyalty has fractured along education lines and shifted dramatically on key issues — particularly foreign policy," the report notes.
The unpopular war in Iran is taking a visible toll on Republican support, Newsweek's Jesus Mesa wrote, noting that 62 percent of voters blame the White House for being too focused on foreign policy versus domestic issues, up from 56.3 percent in January. Just 13 percent say the administration is too focused on domestic matters.
The polling comes as Republicans already face predictions of a midterm wipeout that could flip both chambers of Congress to Democratic majorities.