President Donald Trump's scheme to strongarm Republicans around the country to redraw congressional lines to give themselves extra seats has been an utter failure at shoring up their odds of holding their House majority, CNN election data analyst Harry Enten told Sara Sidner on Thursday — and it might even have failed at tilting the maps in their favor altogether.
"Sojust how much of the chance thatthe GOP have to hold on to thoseHouse seats since thisredistricting happened in Texas?" asked Sidner.
"Talk about one of yourall time backfires," said Enten, pulling up data from the Kalshi gambling platform, which has a partnership deal with CNN to advertise their platform in political segments. "You go back tothe day that Texas redistricted ... it was a 33 percentchance. You come over to thisside of the screen. Well, thatis way down. Hello. Down we go.We're talking about just a 14 percentchance now that the GOP in factholds on to the House ofRepresentatives."
"So despitestarting the fire back in Texasall those months ago, it feelsso long ago because theRepublican chances of holding onto the house Have absolutelydeclined," said Enten. "Down we go into thewater."
"Look, it's not unusual whenthe Republicans are in power andthen the midterm comes," said Sidner. "We'veseen this with Democrats andRepublicans throughout thehistory. But how much has thenational environment movedtoward them?"
"So, you know, atthe end of the day, a risingtide lifts all boats, if you'rethe case of the Democratic Party, right?" said Enten. "And what we've seen is amassive shift on the nationallevel. You can see in thegeneric congressional ballot,just take a look here. I mean,this just tells the story. Rightback when the day that Texasredistricted Democrats held alead on the generic ballot, butit was just three points. Sincethat time, that lead hasdoubled. It has doubled to sixpoints. I don't care how much you redistrict. If you have asix point national environmentin your favor, if you're theDemocrats, Republicans can onlyredistrict so many seats. And atthis point, they're actuallybehind. When it comes toredistricting, Democrats haveactually gained more seats."
"Sonot only are you seeing that theredistricting has moved againstthe Republican Party, thenational environment has movedagainst them as well," said Enten. "You got asix-point lead if you're theDemocrats. This is the type ofthing you say, yes, yes, yes,we're getting that majorityback. And that's why one of thereasons why their chances havegone way, way up and theRepublican chances have goneway, way down."