President Donald Trump's scheme to strongarm Republicans around the country to redraw congressional lines to give themselves extra seats has been an utter failure at shoring up their odds of holding their House majority, CNN election data analyst Harry Enten told Sara Sidner on Thursday — and it might even have failed at tilting the maps in their favor altogether.
"So just how much of the chance that the GOP have to hold on to those House seats since this redistricting happened in Texas?" asked Sidner.
"Talk about one of your all time backfires," said Enten, pulling up data from the Kalshi gambling platform, which has a partnership deal with CNN to advertise their platform in political segments. "You go back to the day that Texas redistricted ... it was a 33 percent chance. You come over to this side of the screen. Well, that is way down. Hello. Down we go. We're talking about just a 14 percent chance now that the GOP in fact holds on to the House of Representatives."
"So despite starting the fire back in Texas all those months ago, it feels so long ago because the Republican chances of holding on to the house Have absolutely declined," said Enten. "Down we go into the water."
"Look, it's not unusual when the Republicans are in power and then the midterm comes," said Sidner. "We've seen this with Democrats and Republicans throughout the history. But how much has the national environment moved toward them?"
"So, you know, at the end of the day, a rising tide lifts all boats, if you're the case of the Democratic Party, right?" said Enten. "And what we've seen is a massive shift on the national level. You can see in the generic congressional ballot, just take a look here. I mean, this just tells the story. Right back when the day that Texas redistricted Democrats held a lead on the generic ballot, but it was just three points. Since that time, that lead has doubled. It has doubled to six points. I don't care how much you redistrict. If you have a six point national environment in your favor, if you're the Democrats, Republicans can only redistrict so many seats. And at this point, they're actually behind. When it comes to redistricting, Democrats have actually gained more seats."
"So not only are you seeing that the redistricting has moved against the Republican Party, the national environment has moved against them as well," said Enten. "You got a six-point lead if you're the Democrats. This is the type of thing you say, yes, yes, yes, we're getting that majority back. And that's why one of the reasons why their chances have gone way, way up and the Republican chances have gone way, way down."
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