Republicans in the House of Representatives have a highly ambitious agenda that they want to pass even though they have a razor-thin majority that leaves them with no room for error.
The American Prospect's David Dayen took a look at the daunting timeline Republicans face and has concluded that they really could fail to deliver on their vow to extend the tax-cut package they passed seven years ago.
First, he notes that Republicans are currently split on how to handle an ambitious budget reconciliation package, as they are debating over whether to cut their agenda into one or two packages.
Although the House GOP favors doing everything in one fell swoop, Dayen argues that path is still fraught with peril.
"Throwing everything into one bill just complicates the enormous number of issues that must be addressed," he writes. "As my colleague Bob Kuttner has laid out, Trump has made as much as $7 trillion in tax cut promises, and there isn’t much around in the way of obvious offsets to fill that gap, even though many in the caucus want the package to not increase the deficit. That much actual savings would require cutting deep into broadly popular programs."
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Added to this, Dayen has found that there will be major divides between Republicans about what should and should not be concluded in the package.
"On the details, some Republicans want to keep parts of the IRA intact and some don’t," he notes. "Some want to raise tariffs legislatively as an offset and some don’t. Some are demanding a repeal of the cap on state and local tax deductions and some see that as too expensive. Some want to deal with health care in that tax bill and some don’t. Some want to cut Medicaid and food stamps and some don’t."
With all these balls in the air, Dayen concludes that not extending the Trump tax cuts, which he describes as "a fate worse than death" to Republicans, could really happen due to their own "incompetence."