'Trouble is brewing': Data guru highlights trend that signals 'very bad' year for GOP

House Republicans are sprinting for the exits, and CNN's Harry Enten said they know "trouble is brewing."

A record 36 Republicans have already announced they will not seek re-election in November, the most in a century, and the network's chief data analyst explained what that means for the GOP's chances for holding on to their House majority.

"You know, I would say that House Republicans are runningfor the exits faster than kidsdo on the final day of school," Enten said. "Imean, just take a look here – oh,hello – most House retirementssince 1930, so far this cyclealready 36, 36. That is the grandrecord over the last nearly 100years, my goodness gracious. That actually beats the formerrecord in total, which was 34back in the 2018 cycle, and thatwasn't that long ago, and I dorecall that was a very, verygood year for House Democrats."

"The bottom line is this youdon't run for the exits unless,you know, trouble is brewing," Enten added, "and House Republicans so farbelieve trouble is absolutelybrewing."

Enten looked at past elections and found that retirements strongly correlated with election results.

"Sometimes Ijust like to pontificate, butsometimes I actually have factsbehind me," he said. "Let's take a lookhere, okay, party with fewer House retirements since 1982 andmidterm cycles, they went on towin the U.S. house 80 percent of thetime. Far fewer Democrats areretiring this cycle than Republicans. When one side runsfor the exits, right – I'm doingmy best right here, my best Usain Bolt right here. When oneside runs for the exits, theylose the House of Representatives."

"When one sidestays put, it's because theythink something good is going tohappen, and House Democratsclearly think something is goodgoing to happen, and House Republicans clearly thinksomething very bad, very bad isgoing to happen," Enten added. "Again, we say thisis basically a record since1930, more than we've seen in100 years, and that's just sofar."

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