An Iowa obituary for Ron DeSantis’ presidential dreams

WINDSOR HEIGHTS, Iowa — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis checked all the Iowa boxes. He shook countless hands. He attended coffee klatches and county festivals. He lavished local legislators with campaign cash. He pandered like a pro.

On paper, DeSantis had a lot going for his campaign. For a brief moment last year, he even seemed in striking distance of Trump.

Yet DeSantis’ best-case scenario for tonight's Iowa Caucus is a distant second place. More likely, he's on track to finish third, behind both former President Donald Trump and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

So why didn't he get more traction in Iowa?

And more: Why is Iowa poised to kill dead DeSantis’ 2024 presidential dreams altogether?

Money

Iowa is a relatively cheap place to run for president, thanks to its smaller media markets. In theory, that levels the playing field between well-funded candidates and little-known upstarts.

Nevertheless, it costs a lot to build an effective statewide operation. DeSantis had plenty of money right out of the gate. His presidential campaign hired a big staff in the early months. His Florida campaign committee transferred at least $80 million to the federal super PAC Never Back Down, in possible violation of campaign finance law.

Both the DeSantis campaign and Never Back Down underperformed on the fundraising front. The campaign imposed its first round of layoffs in July, and DeSantis replaced his first campaign manager in August.

Never Back Down, which DeSantis didn’t directly control and began spiraling into dysfunction, had to cut back on planned spending in the fall, including on digital ads. My own YouTube-watching Iowa teenager has seen countless ads supporting Haley or opposing DeSantis, some anti-Trump messages, and a smattering of ads for Vivek Ramaswamy — but none promoting DeSantis.

I've seen pro-Haley/anti-DeSantis ads while playing word games on my phone, but none urging me to support the Florida governor.

During last week's CNN debate in Des Moines, Haley taunted her rival for blowing through $150 million, only to go down in the polls. Alluding to a New York Times report from last month, she mentioned twice that DeSantis had spent more on chartering private planes than television commercials.

In fairness to DeSantis, more money has been spent on ads attacking him than anyone else in the field. Then again, if he had used his resources more wisely, he would have been able to counter those messages more effectively.

Ground game

Never Back Down invested heavily in a field operation, starting before DeSantis officially launched his campaign in May. The super PAC claims to have recruited more than 1,600 precinct captains — enough dedicated volunteers to cover almost every Iowa precinct — and keeps in touch with them frequently.

The ground game is DeSantis' biggest advantage over Haley, and if he does better than expected tonight, that will be why.

But some skepticism is in order regarding the numbers DeSantis boosters have been touting.

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Never Back Down trained many canvassers and has been telling journalists that the group has reached 812,000 Iowa households. They don't say how many of those knocks even led to a conversation with a registered voter, let alone a commitment from a likely caucus-goer. Ask anyone who has spent a few hours knocking on those doors: lots of people aren't home. Still, door-knockers will typically check those households off their walk list.

Never Back Down told NBC News in December it had 30,000 signed commitment cards for DeSantis. Iowa-based talk radio host Steve Deace, who endorsed the Florida governor and has campaigned with him, recently put the number at 60,000 cards.

They don't say how many of those were duplicates, signed by enthusiasts who attended more than one event. They don't say how many were collected months ago, when DeSantis was polling better and seemed to be the leading GOP alternative to Trump, who himself boasts a robust 2024 Iowa ground game and a shoo-in 2020 Iowa Caucus victory.

Moreover, not everyone who commits to a candidate shows up when it counts. I learned that lesson firsthand as a precinct captain for John Kerry before the 2004 Democratic caucuses, and for John Edwards (I know, don't get me started) in 2008. Some people change their minds; late surges are common in the Iowa caucuses. Some who plan to attend can't overcome the inertia to go out on a cold, dark night. And some never really supported your guy, but signed a card just to get rid of the canvasser at their door.

DeSantis once argued that “a limited government is much more likely to be a competent government.” When it comes to Iowa Caucus ground games, the mirror opposite is true.

Endorsements

DeSantis landed a lot of high-profile endorsements in Iowa. More than three-dozen state legislators came out for him in May. Deace has a large listening audience. Gov. Kim Reynolds' preference for DeSantis was obvious months before she officially endorsed his candidacy in November.

Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent social conservative, backed DeSantis shortly before Thanksgiving. He had endorsed three previous Iowa caucus winners (Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016).

Here's the problem: You'd be hard-pressed to find any example of an Iowa caucus endorsement that made a difference in any election cycle. Evangelical voters are not consolidating around any one candidate this year like they have in the past. DeSantis supposedly has more than 150 "pastors and faith leaders" behind him — but Trump has more than 300. Recent polls show Trump leading with caucus-goers who identify as evangelicals.

I wasn't surprised to see DeSantis continue to stall out in Iowa surveys, even after Reynolds spent weeks campaigning for him in person and on television. And I have yet to talk to any Iowa politics watcher — Democrat or Republican — who thinks it was smart for the governor to pick a favorite before the caucuses.

Retail campaigning

Since Jimmy Carter finished second behind "uncommitted" in 1976, retail campaigning has been perceived as the key to the Iowa caucuses. Iowa voters are willing to hear out presidential candidates, even long shots.

By early December, DeSantis had campaigned in every Iowa county. Technically — despite federal laws prohibiting coordination between candidates and outside groups — the Never Back Down super PAC organized most of those events, with the governor appearing as a "special guest." DeSantis has contrasted his work ethic in Iowa to that of Trump, saying he knows support must be earned,

“The fact that I’m willing to do this, that should show you that I consider myself a servant, not a ruler,” DeSantis said last month.

The truth is, some Republicans have done well here without completing a "full Grassley" (George W. Bush in 2000, Trump in 2016). And several who did campaign in all 99 Iowa counties have failed to catch fire.

This cycle, Vivek Ramaswamy has held at least two events in each Iowa county. Texas pastor and business owner Ryan Binkley has a 0 percent polling average to show for his own 99-county tour and spending more than $3 million in Iowa in the third quarter alone.

For DeSantis especially, just showing up is not enough, especially when you’ve earned a reputation as aloof, inauthentic, unlikeable, Mickey Mouse-phobic and, of course, (De)sanctimonious. Nothing he’s done in Iowa during the past many months truly endeared him to Iowa Republicans — at least, not enough to make any difference.

While some candidates are a natural at working a room, DeSantis flubbed easy chances to win Iowans over — blowing off a World War II veteran at one early event, and famously suggesting to a little girl at a fair that her ICEE drink had “a lot of sugar.”

Weather

Up until about a week ago, Iowa was having a warmer-than-usual winter, with little snow.

But two large storms blew through the state last week, followed by an Arctic blast. Iowans are used to cold weather in January, but the forecast for Monday calls for a high temperature of -2ºF in Des Moines and a low of -12ºF. The wind chill will make it feel as low as -30ºF.

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We've never had weather like this for the caucuses, and the bitter cold will depress turnout for all candidates. Iowa political reporters have different views on who might lose the most. Trump will be least harmed, because his voters are the most enthusiastic, and he has the largest Iowa ground game.

Attending a caucus is also more fun and exciting when you're on the winning team. It's less motivating to go out and help a candidate vying for second place, especially when he seems to have nowhere to go after Iowa — there’s almost zero chance DeSantis will score upsets in any of the contests before Super Tuesday, including the Nevada Caucus and New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.

If you’re reading this a few days after the Iowa Caucus, it’s quite plausible DeSantis will have already suspended his campaign and limped back to Florida.

Speaking of the battle for second: Haley appears to be coming on strong in urban and suburban areas, and somewhat weaker in rural areas, like Marco Rubio in 2016. The roads should be better plowed in cities and suburbs, and those Iowans won't have to travel as far to a precinct caucus site as the rural voters who may prefer DeSantis to Haley.

Trump

Perhaps this Iowa Caucus campaign was never destined to be very competitive; most Republicans were not looking for an alternative to the de facto incumbent. Trump's campaign forces, meanwhile, relentlessly pummeled DeSantis with brutal messaging.

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DeSantis didn’t help himself here by failing to make any coherent case against the front-runner. He has mostly floated weak process arguments, suggesting Trump should do more retail campaigning, should show up for debates and should stop trashing Republicans who don’t “kiss the ring.” More recently, he has dinged Trump for not finishing the border wall, not curbing the administrative state and not firing Dr. Anthony Fauci.

DeSantis told a Christian radio host last month, "I wish Trump hadn’t been indicted on any of this stuff," because "it’s sucked out all the oxygen.” And he told reporters in Iowa on Friday that Trump has “basically a Praetorian Guard of the conservative media," who don't "hold him accountable because they're worried about losing viewers" by covering the former president critically.

He's one to talk. With each criminal indictment, DeSantis amplified Trump's message about the Biden administration supposedly "weaponizing" the Justice Department. He even indicated his administration wouldn't extradite Trump from Florida to face charges in New York.

At some Iowa events, DeSantis has hinted he is more electable than the former president, whose legal entanglements could become a distraction or more. But it took DeSantis months just to say publicly that Trump lost the 2020 election. He has never called out Trump’s myriad lies about that election or 101 other topics. Meanwhile, Trump draws laughs at his Iowa rallies with riffs on Ron “DeSanctus” — and appears to be laughing all the way to an easy Iowa Caucus victory.