Laura Belin

An Iowa obituary for Ron DeSantis’ presidential dreams

WINDSOR HEIGHTS, Iowa — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis checked all the Iowa boxes. He shook countless hands. He attended coffee klatches and county festivals. He lavished local legislators with campaign cash. He pandered like a pro.

On paper, DeSantis had a lot going for his campaign. For a brief moment last year, he even seemed in striking distance of Trump.

Yet DeSantis’ best-case scenario for tonight's Iowa Caucus is a distant second place. More likely, he's on track to finish third, behind both former President Donald Trump and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

So why didn't he get more traction in Iowa?

And more: Why is Iowa poised to kill dead DeSantis’ 2024 presidential dreams altogether?

Money

Iowa is a relatively cheap place to run for president, thanks to its smaller media markets. In theory, that levels the playing field between well-funded candidates and little-known upstarts.

Nevertheless, it costs a lot to build an effective statewide operation. DeSantis had plenty of money right out of the gate. His presidential campaign hired a big staff in the early months. His Florida campaign committee transferred at least $80 million to the federal super PAC Never Back Down, in possible violation of campaign finance law.

Both the DeSantis campaign and Never Back Down underperformed on the fundraising front. The campaign imposed its first round of layoffs in July, and DeSantis replaced his first campaign manager in August.

Never Back Down, which DeSantis didn’t directly control and began spiraling into dysfunction, had to cut back on planned spending in the fall, including on digital ads. My own YouTube-watching Iowa teenager has seen countless ads supporting Haley or opposing DeSantis, some anti-Trump messages, and a smattering of ads for Vivek Ramaswamy — but none promoting DeSantis.

I've seen pro-Haley/anti-DeSantis ads while playing word games on my phone, but none urging me to support the Florida governor.

During last week's CNN debate in Des Moines, Haley taunted her rival for blowing through $150 million, only to go down in the polls. Alluding to a New York Times report from last month, she mentioned twice that DeSantis had spent more on chartering private planes than television commercials.

In fairness to DeSantis, more money has been spent on ads attacking him than anyone else in the field. Then again, if he had used his resources more wisely, he would have been able to counter those messages more effectively.

Ground game

Never Back Down invested heavily in a field operation, starting before DeSantis officially launched his campaign in May. The super PAC claims to have recruited more than 1,600 precinct captains — enough dedicated volunteers to cover almost every Iowa precinct — and keeps in touch with them frequently.

The ground game is DeSantis' biggest advantage over Haley, and if he does better than expected tonight, that will be why.

But some skepticism is in order regarding the numbers DeSantis boosters have been touting.

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Never Back Down trained many canvassers and has been telling journalists that the group has reached 812,000 Iowa households. They don't say how many of those knocks even led to a conversation with a registered voter, let alone a commitment from a likely caucus-goer. Ask anyone who has spent a few hours knocking on those doors: lots of people aren't home. Still, door-knockers will typically check those households off their walk list.

Never Back Down told NBC News in December it had 30,000 signed commitment cards for DeSantis. Iowa-based talk radio host Steve Deace, who endorsed the Florida governor and has campaigned with him, recently put the number at 60,000 cards.

They don't say how many of those were duplicates, signed by enthusiasts who attended more than one event. They don't say how many were collected months ago, when DeSantis was polling better and seemed to be the leading GOP alternative to Trump, who himself boasts a robust 2024 Iowa ground game and a shoo-in 2020 Iowa Caucus victory.

Moreover, not everyone who commits to a candidate shows up when it counts. I learned that lesson firsthand as a precinct captain for John Kerry before the 2004 Democratic caucuses, and for John Edwards (I know, don't get me started) in 2008. Some people change their minds; late surges are common in the Iowa caucuses. Some who plan to attend can't overcome the inertia to go out on a cold, dark night. And some never really supported your guy, but signed a card just to get rid of the canvasser at their door.

DeSantis once argued that “a limited government is much more likely to be a competent government.” When it comes to Iowa Caucus ground games, the mirror opposite is true.

Endorsements

DeSantis landed a lot of high-profile endorsements in Iowa. More than three-dozen state legislators came out for him in May. Deace has a large listening audience. Gov. Kim Reynolds' preference for DeSantis was obvious months before she officially endorsed his candidacy in November.

Bob Vander Plaats, a prominent social conservative, backed DeSantis shortly before Thanksgiving. He had endorsed three previous Iowa caucus winners (Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016).

Bob Vander Plaats speaks at the 2015 Presidential Family Family Forum in Des Moines, Iowa. Gage Skidmore/Creative Commons

Here's the problem: You'd be hard-pressed to find any example of an Iowa caucus endorsement that made a difference in any election cycle. Evangelical voters are not consolidating around any one candidate this year like they have in the past. DeSantis supposedly has more than 150 "pastors and faith leaders" behind him — but Trump has more than 300. Recent polls show Trump leading with caucus-goers who identify as evangelicals.

I wasn't surprised to see DeSantis continue to stall out in Iowa surveys, even after Reynolds spent weeks campaigning for him in person and on television. And I have yet to talk to any Iowa politics watcher — Democrat or Republican — who thinks it was smart for the governor to pick a favorite before the caucuses.

Retail campaigning

Since Jimmy Carter finished second behind "uncommitted" in 1976, retail campaigning has been perceived as the key to the Iowa caucuses. Iowa voters are willing to hear out presidential candidates, even long shots.

By early December, DeSantis had campaigned in every Iowa county. Technically — despite federal laws prohibiting coordination between candidates and outside groups — the Never Back Down super PAC organized most of those events, with the governor appearing as a "special guest." DeSantis has contrasted his work ethic in Iowa to that of Trump, saying he knows support must be earned,

“The fact that I’m willing to do this, that should show you that I consider myself a servant, not a ruler,” DeSantis said last month.

The truth is, some Republicans have done well here without completing a "full Grassley" (George W. Bush in 2000, Trump in 2016). And several who did campaign in all 99 Iowa counties have failed to catch fire.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks with supporters at a town hall at Wellman's Pub & Rooftop in West Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 12, 2024. Like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his retail politicking blitz doesn't appear it'll pay significant dividends during the Iowa Caucus. Gage Skidmore/Creative Commons

This cycle, Vivek Ramaswamy has held at least two events in each Iowa county. Texas pastor and business owner Ryan Binkley has a 0 percent polling average to show for his own 99-county tour and spending more than $3 million in Iowa in the third quarter alone.

For DeSantis especially, just showing up is not enough, especially when you’ve earned a reputation as aloof, inauthentic, unlikeable, Mickey Mouse-phobic and, of course, (De)sanctimonious. Nothing he’s done in Iowa during the past many months truly endeared him to Iowa Republicans — at least, not enough to make any difference.

While some candidates are a natural at working a room, DeSantis flubbed easy chances to win Iowans over — blowing off a World War II veteran at one early event, and famously suggesting to a little girl at a fair that her ICEE drink had “a lot of sugar.”

Weather

Up until about a week ago, Iowa was having a warmer-than-usual winter, with little snow.

But two large storms blew through the state last week, followed by an Arctic blast. Iowans are used to cold weather in January, but the forecast for Monday calls for a high temperature of -2ºF in Des Moines and a low of -12ºF. The wind chill will make it feel as low as -30ºF.

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We've never had weather like this for the caucuses, and the bitter cold will depress turnout for all candidates. Iowa political reporters have different views on who might lose the most. Trump will be least harmed, because his voters are the most enthusiastic, and he has the largest Iowa ground game.

Attending a caucus is also more fun and exciting when you're on the winning team. It's less motivating to go out and help a candidate vying for second place, especially when he seems to have nowhere to go after Iowa — there’s almost zero chance DeSantis will score upsets in any of the contests before Super Tuesday, including the Nevada Caucus and New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.

If you’re reading this a few days after the Iowa Caucus, it’s quite plausible DeSantis will have already suspended his campaign and limped back to Florida.

Speaking of the battle for second: Haley appears to be coming on strong in urban and suburban areas, and somewhat weaker in rural areas, like Marco Rubio in 2016. The roads should be better plowed in cities and suburbs, and those Iowans won't have to travel as far to a precinct caucus site as the rural voters who may prefer DeSantis to Haley.

Trump

Perhaps this Iowa Caucus campaign was never destined to be very competitive; most Republicans were not looking for an alternative to the de facto incumbent. Trump's campaign forces, meanwhile, relentlessly pummeled DeSantis with brutal messaging.

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DeSantis didn’t help himself here by failing to make any coherent case against the front-runner. He has mostly floated weak process arguments, suggesting Trump should do more retail campaigning, should show up for debates and should stop trashing Republicans who don’t “kiss the ring.” More recently, he has dinged Trump for not finishing the border wall, not curbing the administrative state and not firing Dr. Anthony Fauci.

DeSantis told a Christian radio host last month, "I wish Trump hadn’t been indicted on any of this stuff," because "it’s sucked out all the oxygen.” And he told reporters in Iowa on Friday that Trump has “basically a Praetorian Guard of the conservative media," who don't "hold him accountable because they're worried about losing viewers" by covering the former president critically.

He's one to talk. With each criminal indictment, DeSantis amplified Trump's message about the Biden administration supposedly "weaponizing" the Justice Department. He even indicated his administration wouldn't extradite Trump from Florida to face charges in New York.

At some Iowa events, DeSantis has hinted he is more electable than the former president, whose legal entanglements could become a distraction or more. But it took DeSantis months just to say publicly that Trump lost the 2020 election. He has never called out Trump’s myriad lies about that election or 101 other topics. Meanwhile, Trump draws laughs at his Iowa rallies with riffs on Ron “DeSanctus” — and appears to be laughing all the way to an easy Iowa Caucus victory.

Iowa town blocked Pride group from Labor Day parade

This article originally appeared in Bleeding Heartland, a news and commentary website covering Iowa politics.

City leaders in Essex, Iowa, a town of about 722 people, ignored warnings about the First Amendment when they prevented local LGBTQ residents from participating in the town's Labor Day parade on September 4.

Shenandoah Pride represents LGBTQ people in several towns in southwest Iowa's Page County. The group had signed up months ago to participate in the Essex Labor Day parade, a longstanding community event. Local drag performer Cherry Peaks was going to ride in a convertible and wave.

But Essex Mayor Calvin Kinney emailed Peaks on August 31 to say:

"Out of concern for the safety of the public and that of Essex Labor Day parade participants, the City of Essex has determined not to allow parade participants geared toward the promotion of, or opposition to, the politically charged topic of gender and/or sexual identification/orientation. This parade will not be used for and will not allow sexual identification or sexual orientation agendas for, or against, to be promoted."

The Essex City Council held a special meeting on September 1 to discuss the matter but did not reverse the decision. Jack Dura of the Associated Press reported that the city council didn't vote on the mayor's action: "Council Member Heather Thornton, who disagreed with the move, said 'it was the mayor himself,' and added she was told he had the authority and didn't need a council vote."

'I don't expect a city council to make that decision on my behalf'

Jessa Bears, a member of Shenandoah Pride, challenged the pretext for the city's action in a September 2 Facebook post. She noted that the mayor repeatedly invoked "safety" at the meeting, but "no one on the Shenandoah pride team has seen or heard about the threats" from what he described as an opposition group. Bears wondered why the alleged safety threats weren't "being addressed appropriately," and why leaders were "protecting the identities of the people or group" said to be making the threats.

She also noted:

"I think any queer person in southwest Iowa understands the risk they run when they choose to be openly queer in this community. We know there’s a danger, safety has been a part of every discussion in Shen Pride before we go out in public. I believe I’m responsible for making decisions about my own personal safety, I don’t expect a city council to make that decision on my behalf just because I’m gay."

Bears told reporter Jessica Perez of KETV in Omaha that the goal of being part of the parade was "visibility," showing others that LGBTQ people live, work, and go to school in the community. Peaks told KETV, "It feels like they're trying to shove us back in the closet," adding that while it's a common "misconception" to think gay people are only in big cities, members of Shenandoah Pride live less than ten miles from Essex.

It's cowardly for people with power to prevent a marginalized group from joining a community event, especially while claiming to do it for their own protection. But in this case, the city's action wasn't merely spineless — it was unconstitutional.

A 'clear violation of the First Amendment'

Sharon Wegner, an attorney for the ACLU of Iowa, wrote to the Essex mayor and city attorney Mahlon Sorensen on September 2, urging them to respect the constitution by changing course. The letter indicated that when the organization contacted Sorensen to warn him about "the impending infringement on the rights of Shenandoah Pride":

"You confirmed for us that there was no credible security threat of which you were aware, let alone one justifying the prohibition made by Mayor Kinney, but, nevertheless, told us that the City would not change its position and would prohibit Shenandoah Pride from participating in the parade."

Wegner explained that the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and Article I, Section 7 of Iowa's constitution "protect and secure the right of organizations like Shenandoah Pride to express their views in public forums such as the Labor Day Parade." Government bodies and officials can't infringe on that right based on the content of a message or the viewpoints expressed.

"It is obvious from Mayor Kinney’s email that the City1 is prohibiting Shenandoah Pride from participating in the Labor Day Parade because it disagrees with its position on the rights of LGBTQ+ persons. That the policy purports to apply equally to groups in “opposition to . . . gender and/or sexual identification/orientation” does not render it neutral, particularly, though not only, because there is no such opposition group that has requested to participate in the Parade."

The ACLU warned that failing to allow Shenandoah Pride to join the Essex Labor Day parade would "violate the rights of its citizens, potentially expose it to substantial liability, and be an injustice to the constitutional rights of every person and every group to participate in its public events."

Mayor Kinney did not respond to Bleeding Heartland's email over the weekend, or to messages KETV's Perez sent on multiple platforms.

ACLU of Iowa executive director Mark Stringer said in a September 2 news release, "City leaders cannot ban participants from a government-sponsored parade just because they don't like their viewpoint. It is a clear violation of the First Amendment and each person's right to free speech and free expression in a public space. This action also sadly fails to acknowledge the many contributions of LGBTQ community members in our Iowa communities, large and small."

Bears told Perez she wants the city of Essex to apologize to Shenandoah Pride, which she described as "a ragtag group of gay people that just wanted to walk in the damn parade."

Disclosure: The ACLU of Iowa represented author Laura Belin and other plaintiffs in an open records lawsuit against the Iowa governor's office, which was settled in June 2023. That litigation is unrelated to the topic of this article.

Election denialism just lost again — this time in a red-trending Iowa county

WINDSOR HEIGHTS, Iowa — With hurricanes, mass shootings and endless Trump-y drama dominating the news, a county auditor special election in central Iowa probably wasn’t on your radar.

But the results last night in Warren County, Iowa, are worth your attention, because they continued a surprising and hopeful trend for state and local races across the country.

That’s because Republicans just lost this special election in Iowa, one of the few states that actually experienced a much-anticipated "red wave" in the 2022 midterms.

Not only that, but the electorate picked a Democrat by a two-to-one margin in a county that has long been trending toward the GOP.

Democrat Kimberly Sheets proved herself a strong candidate for Warren County auditor and worked hard, along with many volunteers, to mobilize voters for Tuesday’s election. Democrats also got an assist when local Republicans nominated a 2020 election denier, David Whipple, for a job that involves administering elections.

Voters in this conservative-leaning county chose a competent, industrious Democrat over a fear-mongering Republican with an overactive imagination.

Friendly Republican terrain

Warren County tilted toward the GOP even when Iowa was still a purple state.

But it was "swingy," voting for Democrats such as Bill Clinton, Gov. Tom Vilsack and Sen. Tom Harkin (who grew up in the county) as well as Republican George W. Bush.

Democrat Barack Obama carried the county by a small margin in the 2008 presidential election, but residents preferred Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.

As Iowa has become more solid red, this growing county just south of the Des Moines metro area has moved increasingly out of reach for Democratic candidates.

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Sen. Joni Ernst (R) carried Warren County in the 2014 and 2020 U.S. Senate races by margins twice as large as her statewide victories. Donald Trump won Iowa by about 9 points against Hillary Clinton and 8 points against Joe Biden, and his Warren County margins — about 16 points in 2016 and 17 points four years later — were even more definitive.

GOP candidates have carried Warren County in all of the recent elections for federal and state offices, and Republicans hold most county offices. The party's voter registration advantage over Democrats has steadily grown as well.

So when Auditor Traci VanderLinden, the county's last remaining Democratic official, retired in May, the all-Republican county board of supervisors passed over Sheets, her deputy and preferred successor.

'Get ready for it ... He's not leaving'

Whipple had never held a political or elective office before the county supervisors named him interim auditor in June. He emphasized his background in construction and his experience hiring, training and managing staff.

But the appointment quickly became controversial, and not only because Whipple had no experience running elections.

Kedron Bardwell, a professor at Simpson College in Indianola, found some disturbing things on the new auditor's Facebook feed. Days after the 2020 presidential election, Whipple had shared a false claim about election fraud in Minnesota, and asserted, "Joe admits MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD during brain fart."

In a different Facebook post from November 2020, Whipple wrote, "Trump has got this.... The left has tried real hard to steal our nation, but no thanks we will remain Patriots and free Americans."

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In late December 2020, Whipple approvingly shared a video of Trump lying about the stolen election, adding, "Get ready for it... He's not leaving despite media reporting.. I'm loving this!"

Four days before the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, Whipple declared, "The line in the sand is near" while sharing a QAnon video on his Facebook feed. He shared a 9/11 truther video on January 6, 2021.

Whipple soon deleted the posts, but not before Bardwell and others grabbed screenshots. Many Iowa news organizations and some national media covered the controversy.

Democrats demand vote, Republicans double down

The county supervisors planned for Whipple to serve as interim auditor through the end of 2024.

But area Democrats, outraged that county leaders passed over a highly-qualified candidate for an election denier, began collecting signatures to force a special election to fill the position for the remainder of the term.

After two weeks, they submitted nearly 3,500 signatures.

Whipple put Sheets on administrative leave — although he said the move wasn’t about politics.

Warren County Republicans tried to derail the election by challenging more than 900 signatures on a technicality.

But the county's election commission determined the petitions were valid and scheduled a special election for late August.

The parties held special county conventions to nominate candidates for auditor. Democrats’ consensus choice: Sheets.

The Warren County GOP could have taken the off-ramp. But despite all of the bad publicity, they stuck with Whipple.

It was a strategic error.

Whipple tries (and fails) to change the subject

Whipple tried to rebrand himself, talking up his management experience in interviews and other public statements. He told BBC reporter Mike Wendling he had shared some "ridiculous" things on Facebook but didn't create that material, adding, "It's unfortunate that a lot of these things ended up being so much misinformation."

He and other Republicans tried to make the campaign about alleged mismanagement in the auditor's office under Sheets and her former boss, VanderLinden. He claimed staff had paid bills late, racking up fees, and let voting machines and election thumb drives go missing. Volunteers, including U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), helped distribute his campaign literature.

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Like many Republicans around the country, Whipple isn't a big fan of voting by groups of Americans unlikely to support him. He complained in an August 27 Facebook post that Sheets was trying to mobilize Simpson College students.

"While it may be legal, it isn't always right," he wrote.

Meanwhile, Sheets outraised her opponent and made thousands of voter contacts with the help of numerous volunteers. She was able to finance direct mail and paid digital advertising, and attended or organized events almost daily — in large part because Whipple had placed her on leave from her day job.

In interviews with local media, she highlighted her professional background, leadership skills and experience gained from working in the auditor's office for seven years.

'We trust competence over conspiracies'

The Democratic operation turned out hundreds more early voters.

But would an apparent lead for Sheets hold up to a possible Republican surge on election day?

It sure did.

Before this week, the record turnout for a Warren County special election was 2,177 votes on a school bond issue in 2022. The auditor's race more than tripled that number: unofficial results show Sheets received 5,051 votes to 2,538 for Whipple.

The partisan breakdown of voters in this election isn't yet available. But Sheets probably couldn't have won so convincingly without mobilizing the Democratic base and winning over the vast majority of voters affiliated with no party.

Speaking to the media once the results were in, Whipple characterized the outcome as "more of a popularity contest" than a competition about "who can do the job." He complained about the expense of holding the special election and said he was disappointed that "only 7,000 people showed up" to vote.

If he had any election administration experience, Whipple would have realized turnout was high by special election standards (around 19 percent of Warren County's 39,000 registered voters).

Sheets said in a written statement:

This is an historic night for Warren County. When the County Supervisors tried to take away the voice of the people, the people of Warren County stood up for our democracy and said with one voice: we trust competence over conspiracies.

Democrats haven’t had many victories to celebrate lately in this county, or Iowa generally. The landslide win for Sheets should be a warning to Republicans across the country: if they keep putting election deniers on the ballot, they may pay a political price in 2024.

Laura Belin is the publisher, editor and primary reporter for the Iowa political website Bleeding Heartland. She is also the part-time statehouse reporter for KHOI Community Radio and writes the free Substack newsletter Iowa politics with Laura Belin.