Secret memo reveals GOP super PAC panicking over red state Senate seat it swore was safe

The top Republican super PAC in the fight for the Senate is privately sounding the alarm over Iowa, a state President Donald Trump carried by more than 13 points, according to a confidential memo pitched to donors.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the leading GOP-aligned Senate super PAC, told donors that "an additional $7 million on top of the current budget would allow SLF to double down and capture voters' attention" for Rep. Ashley Hinson, according to a portion of the memo viewed by Politico Playbook. SLF declined to comment.

The plea is notable because Republicans have spent months treating the seat as favorable ground, even as nerves have crept in. SLF has already poured more than $30 million into boosting Hinson, and public polls have shown her leading Democrat Josh Turek. Yet the memo makes clear the race is not put away.

While praising Hinson for "running an incredible campaign," the memo concedes that Turek, a state representative and two-time Paralympic gold medalist, has an "image is net positive and a third of Iowa voters are still undecided." It also frets about the need to "break through the clutter caused by competitive gubernatorial and congressional races in Iowa," a nod to a ballot that has grown unexpectedly crowded with tossups.

The seat, open since Sen. Joni Ernst decided not to seek reelection, has emerged as a sleeper in the battle for the Senate despite Iowa's recent run of double-digit Republican wins. Democrats' Senate Majority PAC has committed roughly $30 million of its own to lift Turek.

The nerves come amid fresh Republican turbulence in the state. Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley posted on X over the weekend that "High diesel prices ARE KILLING FARMERS INCOME," urging the president to "put an embargo on diesel exports," a striking public break with the White House from one of the state's most prominent Republicans.